WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS MARCH 31

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WEDNESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

GOOD MORNING!

We had a nice, sunny day Tuesday although it was on the cool side. After a frosty start this morning, temperatures will blast off today with the aid of a south wind on the back side of high pressure. Highs in the upper 60s.

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It’s appropriate that March will end on a warm note as it certainly has been a warm month not only locally but across much of the Lower 48:

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UNSETTLED, WINDY THURSDAY

The final day of the month will feature temperatures in the 60s again but as a cold front approaches the risk of showers will be there. The rain will probably come in 2 sections. One around midday/early afternoon and another toward evening.

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The highest risk for thunder will be in the early evening. Not much concern for severe weather here. The risk is much higher to the west and south.

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Rain totals through Thursday night will average 0.50″-1.00″.

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APRIL STARTS COOLER

Friday will not be as warm as today and Thursday but it won’t be all the chilly just yet. Most of the day will be uneventful but there might be a late-day shower as a weak disturbance pushes in from the west.

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A STRONGER  front will arrive late Saturday and this will lead to snow showers late Saturday and Saturday night. Could there be a coating in spots? Yeah maybe.

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Sunday will be partly sunny and cold with temperatures mostly in the 30s. Chance for a flurry.

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On Monday, models are showing another relatively weak system cruising through. High confidence that it will be chilly once again but low confidence in the precipitation details. Will be a RAW home opener for the Indians.

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LONG RANGE

Temperatures will turn around during the second half of next week and the long range is looking mild. April is likely to be closer to average than February and March but still should end up on the warmer side of average by some amount.

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2 DEGREE GUARANTEE:

A good forecast yesterday. I smell another check mark coming today.

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SKYWARN TRAINING

The final 2 SKYWARN classes of the season in our area are tonight. These are FREE and no pre-registration is required. Learn more about types of severe weather and help out NWS and TV meteorologists!

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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video  will hone in on Thursday’s unsettled weather and have an update on the weekend snow chances. Weather For Weather Geeks will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

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TUESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

GOOD MORNING TO YA,

After a rather crummy Monday with clouds, gusty winds and wind chills in the 30s, today will be MUCH improved as high pressure builds overhead. That high dominates the morning weather map:

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Plenty of sunshine today. Although temperatures will be a few degrees below average, the strong March Sun will make it feel warmer.

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WEDNESDAY: BACK TO EARLY MAY

That high will shift to our east. Since the flow around high pressure is clockwise, our wind will come out of the south-southwest on Wednesday…..resulting in a much warmer afternoon. With a good deal of sun, we are heading for the mid 60s.

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SOGGY THURSDAY

A cold front will approach Thursday and showers will be around from about midday onward. There might be a spotty afternoon thunderstorm too. By the time the rain leaves Thursday night, rain totals can reach an inch or so in many spots.

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ModelRain.jpgAt least Thursday will be warm with highs in the 60s once again.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND

In the wake of the front, Friday will not be as warm (but not all that chilly either). There might be an afternoon shower with a weak disturbance coming in from the west.

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The first weekend of April will be more like early March, especially Sunday. Another cold front may bring a shower Saturday, with flurries likely to be seen in some spots Saturday night and Sunday. Temperatures seem likely to stay in the 30s Sunday.

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sunday.pngThe cold will last a few days but it looks like a mild pattern will return by the middle of next week.

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2 DEGREE GUARANTEE:

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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video  will examine the chances for thunder Thursday, have an update on the weekend cold snap and we’ll also have an update on the April forecast. Weather For Weather Geeks will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP

Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley’s most accurate forecast in your pocket!

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MONDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

Good morning!

Hope it was a good Easter for you and your family. What a day it was! 76 was the high Sunday, our warmest day since September 25, 2015.

Today will, uh, not be that nice. The cold front that arrived in the middle of the night dropped a decent amount of rain:

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And some vivid lightning. This shot, by Leanne in Girard, was taken around 2:45am:

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Last night’s rain is gone but we will still need the wet weather gear at times during the midday and afternoon as this area of moisture pivots southeast. Highest chance for steady rain will be north of I-80.

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Simulated radar:

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Temperatures are going nowhere today…holding in the 40s for the rest of the day. I miss yesterday.

MIDWEEK TURNAROUND

Tomorrow will still be cooler with clouds parting for sunshine by midday. Temperatures will end up in the mid 40s but the afternoon will feel warmer with the strong late March sun beating down.

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Wednesday will be a winner with warmer temperatures, some sun and a gusty afternoon breeze. Lower 60s are on the menu.

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NEXT FRONT: THURSDAY

Rain is likely on Thursday as a cold front arrives. There is a chance for thunder. This front will kick start a pattern change that will send up back in time to February as April opens!

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APRIL????

It’s no April Fool…..it will be cold this weekend and early next week. A reinforcing cold front is likely to arrive late Saturday or Saturday night and there can be snowflakes with that.

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While temperatures will likely get into the 40s Saturday, Sunday and Monday (Opening Day!) may feature afternoon readings no higher than the 30s.

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Remember, measurable snow in April is NOT unusual in these parts. Roughly 4% of our annual snow falls during the month of April.

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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video  will have a full update on the crazy ups and downs that we are likely to experience over the next couple of weeks as Winter and Spring do battle. Weather For Weather Geeks will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP

Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley’s most accurate forecast in your pocket!

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THURSDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

GOOD MORNING!

After a high of 64 on Wednesday, today will be even warmer. We’ve made our forecast high 70 and honestly, I could see it getting to 71 or 72. We are firmly in the warm sector ahead of a strong storm system that is moving through the middle of the country.

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Temperatures will soar in our region today with mid 70s common from Pittsburgh to Zanesville.

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But that system is heading our way and it will drag a cold front toward the Valley this evening. Showers will become increasingly likely around dinner time and we expect an unsettled evening with showers and even thunderstorms.

15 hour simulated radar (HRRR model):

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What about severe weather? Could these storms turn strong? It’s a marginal situation. On one hand, the front is coming through at an unfavorable time of day for severe weather. The atmosphere will not be all that unstable. On the other hand, a “low level jet”, a pocket of strong winds at around 5,000 feet, will be pushing overhead. This can aid in storm development and increase the chance that some of those strong winds get pulled down in heavier cells.

Animation showing the arrival of that jet this evening:

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The Storm Prediction Center has the area in the “marginal” risk for severe weather.

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So, something to watch for sure, although again the overall risk of damaging winds is not all that high.

MUCH COOLER FRIDAY

At daybreak on Friday, temperatures will be between 39-43 degrees and that’s about as warm as it will be all day. Temperatures will hold steady or gently fall with a thick blanket of clouds most of the day. It will feel a whole lot different! There can be a rain and wet snow shower in spots through midday.

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THE WEEKEND

Easter weekend is still looking excellent. High pressure will slide east Saturday and a southwest wind will warm us up into the 50s. Lots of sunshine.

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Easter Sunday looks warm and dry (through the daylight hours) with increasing afternoon clouds. Might be 70 or so! Enjoy. Rain arrives Sunday night.

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We look for a soggy period Sunday night into at least Monday morning.

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LONG RANGE:

A cool down early next week will be followed by a midweek warm surge (70 again?). Then cooler weather for the start of April. The numbers shown here may be too high in early April.

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 2 DEGREE GUARANTEE:

Made the right adjustment yesterday as it became apparent that temperatures will blast off despite the clouds.

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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video  will probably mostly focus on the incoming showers and storms. Weather For Weather Geeks will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm.

21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP

Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley’s most accurate forecast in your pocket!

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