BLOG: UPDATE ON NEXT STORM

TGIF!

This post will focus on the midweek storm but first a few words about the short term:

  1. Windy and warmer today. Gusts to 35-40 mp this afternoon. Highs in the upper 40s this afternoon. Current temperatures: currtemps.png
  2. AWESOME tomorrow. Middle and even upper 50s with midday and afternoon sunshine. Enjoy!
  3. Small chance for midday, afternoon rain Sunday, mainly south of Rt. 224.

MIDWEEK STORM

Here’s what we know: There will be a storm in the eastern US in the middle of the work week and it will impact a large number of people.

That’s about it.

This is not unusual. This degree of uncertainty is common in situations where we are 4-6 days out from an event, especially when the disturbance that eventually becomes the storm is still wayyyy out over the Pacific.

500now

The models, as is typical, are shuffling back and forth with the track of the system. Last night’s modeling featured a westward shift. An eastward shift would not surprise me today/tomorrow.

The European model has 2 distinct area of low pressure Wednesday morning. The western low is so far west  that mild air would get drawn into Ohio and western PA. Taken literally, it would suggest a period of RAIN or a mix Wednesday followed by some wet snow Wednesday night into Thursday.

euroweds.png

THE GFS sort of has a similar idea.

gfswedsam.png

gfswedspm.png

Here’s my latest map showing where I think snow is possible and likely with this storm. While I have our region in the “likely” zone, that does not mean it will be a BIG snow event here. I just suspect it snows at least SOME.

Snow Storm-Long Range Map

Overall confidence in ALL aspects of this system is LOW. We’ll see if the weekend brings an increase in confidence.

Winter Storm Confidence Grid

Thanks for reading,

Eric

 

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