GOOD THURSDAY MORNING
Yesterday went pretty much according to plan although a nearly stationary snow squall lead to some “bonus” accumulations overnight around and just south of I-80. Snow totals vary quite a bit, depending on if you got a prolonged squall or not.
On to today! It will be a cold but fairly uneventful day. Some flurries can visit at times. Not much on the 15 hour simulated radar:
NEXT ARCTIC FRONT: MORE SNOW
The mother lode of arctic air will head our way tomorrow and the front will be accompanied by another round of snow showers tomorrow afternoon through Saturday.
Snow totals may be similar to what we just got yesterday and last night. Will put out an official forecast map this afternoon but it looks like something like 2-4″ in many places with perhaps 4-6″ in our northern viewing area.
This is easily the coldest air mass of the winter. Check out the wind chills in SE Canada around Toronto Saturday morning. Dangerous stuff.
Around here it won'[t be that bad but still wind chills can be -10 to -15 early Saturday.
Actual temperatures: no higher than 10 Saturday.
MORE SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK?
It’s looking more and more likely that a light snowfall will occur Sunday night into Monday as a warm front tracks across the region. Probably something like 1-3″.
Then, an area of low pressure should form somewhere across the southeast and track northeast. The question is…what’s the track? Far enough west and we could get in on accumulating snow on Tuesday. Too fast east and it is a miss for us. This is a low confidence forecast this point……although I am currently leaning toward either 1) a miss or 2) a glancing blow with minor accumulations.
GFS model depiction of Tuesday:
That suggests a “miss”. But experienced forecasters know that in these types of situations several days out, we must look at all the information available including the “ensembles”. These are different simulations of the same model, each with slightly different information “baked in”. Most of the GFS ensemble members have a miss for us:
That said, other modeling including the European ensemble say…..be careful. A farther west track is on the table. So…bottom line….there’s a chance for snow but confidence is low.
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video is of course going to take a thorough look at tomorrow/Saturday’s snow and cold as well as the latest on next week’s threat. It’ll be another packed video! Weather For Weather Geeks will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the WFMJ app by 8:00pm.
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