The next 5 days will be the busiest of the winter season in the weather department….of course that is not exactly saying all that much. Let’s start with a fairly quiet day today.
While there can be a passing flurry at any point today, the highest chance of a snow shower that could coat the grass will be toward sunset. Here’s the HRRR model simulated radar:
Notice that band of darker blue that is shown to move through around sunset.
Temperatures will not move much today, staying between 32-35 just about all day and then dropping after sunset:
ARCTIC PUNCH #1
The first of 2 arctic fronts will approach and then cross the area tonight through Wednesday. This will lead to a higher chance for snow showers and perhaps some heavier squalls. It will turn windy and colder as well….truly feeling like winter.
NAM model simulated radar through early Thursday:
How much snow? I think a general 1-3″ can accumulate tonight through Wednesday night. Some higher totals are possible closer to the snowbelt in northern Trumbull and Mercer.
Computer model plumes:
The National Weather Service has a Lake Effect Snow Watch out for the snow belt counties.
The wind chills are likely to be between zero and -5 by daybreak Thursday. Probably not enough for school adjustments, but we shall see.
Friday morning’s wind chills will be in the same ballpark.
ARCTIC PUNCH #2
The 2nd and stronger front will approach on Friday. Much of Friday morning and early afternoon will be tranquil but I suspect some snow will return later in the day and continue into Friday night as the front moves through.
This could result in a general couple/few inches of new accumulation.
The coldest weather of the whole winter will occur this weekend. Temperatures Saturday are likely to struggle to reach 10 and 6-7 degrees may about do it.
Wind chills will be WAY below zero all day Saturday.
Sunday will not be as harsh but still quite cold with highs 15-20. At least there will be some sun as high pressure moves overhead.
The cold will not stick around long (typical of this winter). Next week looks milder and we could have some days in the 40s. No harsh arctic attacks look likely in the final days of February. That is how it looks now but of course long-range forecasts are always subject to some adjustments.
2 DEGREE GUARANTEE
February forecasts off to a good start…..some challenging ones ahead!
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