WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS FEBRUARY 29

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MONDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

GOOD MORNING!

Welcome to a new week and what SHOULD be winter’s last hurrah.

We had some rain overnight, here’s a sampling of rain totals:

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The rest of the day will feature a gusty wind and some clearing. Hi-res models show the Sun returning this afternoon:

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Temperatures will remain well above average with some places touching 50 this afternoon.

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NEXT SYSTEM: RAIN TO SNOW

The next fast-moving system will arrive late Tuesday and we expect rain for at least a few hours into the overnight. Then as the colder air wraps in behind the storm a changeover to wet snow is likely to occur.

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We are not expecting the snow to be a “big deal” but, especially on non-paved surfaces there might be a slushy inch (maybe 2″ north of I-80) by daybreak Wednesday.

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LATE-WEEK: CLOSE SHAVE?

A quiet day Thursday. Then, an area of low pressure will quickly move across the southern states Thursday night into Friday morning.

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Accumulating snow is most likely south of I-70 with this feature.

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But still, there is at least a chance that the Valley gets a small accumulation of snow late Thursday night and early Friday. More on that as we get closer.

LONG RANGE: SPRING FEVER!

I have been talking about this since late last week…..NEXT week looks very balmy for March. The West will turn cold and stormy and the East will see well above-average temperatures. I think it hits 70 or higher at LEAST one or two days.

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It may not be a redo of the ridiculously warm start to Spring in March 2012 but it should be impressive nonetheless!

 

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will focus on this week’s snow chances and I’ll take an extensive look at the warmth next week.  Weather For Weather Geeks will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00-8:30pm.

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THURSDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

GOOD MORNING TO YA,

The transition from rain to flurries and snow showers occurred on schedule early this morning although there is just not that much precipitation out there yet. We expect the midday and afternoon to be more active today and then the snow will taper to flurries early this evening.

15 hour futurecast:

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As we have been talking about, snow will have a hard time sticking, especially on paved surfaces, until late this afternoon and early this evening. The ground is warm and temperatures will be near or even a little above freezing until that point.

Still there can be a burst of steadier, heavier snow at the start of rush hour that can cause some issues.

Snow map:

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Impacts:

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RESIDUAL FLOODING:

In the usual spots in southwestern Trumbull County, flooding concerns remain today. Flood Warning is up for Eagle Creek at Phalanx Station and the Mahoning River at Leavittsburg.

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A COLD, CLOUDY FRIDAY

Temperatures will stay in the 20s and there will be some flurries around, mainly in the morning.

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WHAT A WEEKEND!

Another great weekend on the way. Temperatures will get into the 40s in the wake of a warm front on Saturday and Sunday will feature readings in the 50s. Woooo!

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The next cold front is on the way late Sunday night and early Monday with a chance for rain and snow showers. Does not look like a big deal.

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LONG RANGE:

Early March looks “back and forth” with periods of mild and chilly weather but the colder days do not look all that extreme. Beyond that, we think mid-March is likely to be pretty mild.

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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will recap the afternoon snow and will have a fresh perspective on next week’s forecasting challenges.  Weather For Weather Geeks will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the WFMJ app by 8:00pm.

2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

Right on the money yesterday. Not happy with the 65% for the year so far…looking to get that over 70% in the next couple of weeks.

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WEDNESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

GOOD MORNING!

It’s a lovely morning….if you are a duck. It’s been pouring for since around 4am on average. Radar at 9:02am:

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Rain totals are exceeding 3/4″ of an inch already in much of the region.

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We can expect a storm total rainfall of 1-1.5″ by tonight.

Simulated radars for the mid-Atlantic region and our local area:

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We can see breaks in the rain this afternoon and evening but there will be spotty showers around. There is a small chance for a rumble of thunder. The chance for thunderstorms is higher to our south:

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The Gulf Coast got rocked by severe weather yesterday and last night and today the mid-Atlantic region down to the Carolinas is under the gun.

With the dry slot moving overhead this afternoon, temperatures can shoot up into the 50s once again.

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BACK TO WINTER (BRIEFLY)

We expect that colder air on the back side of the storm to move overhead tomorrow and we will see a changeover to snow during the morning. Snow showers will be here off and on through Thursday evening before tapering to just flurries later Thursday night.

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Snow amounts will not be all that impressive. Here’s the map I issued last evening and it looks generally fine this morning:

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Current modeling:

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In general, an inch or two inches of wet snow will about do it. 3-4″ may be generous in the northern part of the viewing area but I can’t rule it out either. As far as impacts….with temperatures above freezing for most of the daylight hours Thursday I would expect most roads to just be wet. Surfaces are warm after this mild spell and it’s hard to get snow to stick on pavement in late February during the day unless it is really coming down hard (thanks to increasing sun strength). Roads can turn slick after sunset Thursday but I am not expecting problems for Friday morning.

A GREAT WEEKEND

After a cold Friday (20s), we should be back in the 40s Saturday and 50s Sunday. Another nice weekend in February!

The next front probably arrives on Monday with a chance for rain and snow.

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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will recap the day’s rain, take a fresh look at tomorrow’s snow and we’ll do an extensive long-range outlook.  Weather For Weather Geeks will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the WFMJ app by 8:00pm.

2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

Yesterday was sunnier than I thought it would be and so it got warmer than I thought. Was a great day (aside from the forecast bust)

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TUESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

GOOD MORNING!

We’ll make it 4 nice days in a row today although it will overall be a cloudier day than yesterday. Clouds will increase during the midday and afternoon hours.

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TOOSHIGHS

WEDNESDAY SOAKER

A strong low pressure area will track across the Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys through Wednesday, sending a pretty good plume of moisture our way. THis simulated radar takes us through early tomorrow morning, showing the rain arriving around or a little before daybreak.

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Rain will be steadiest in the morning hours Wednesday and then a little more “hit or miss” in the afternoon. Then steadier rain will return Wednesday night.

This system will produce a major severe weather outbreak in the Deep South today ionto tonight.

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We are not expecting severe weather here but there might be a rumble of thunder late Wednesday.

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Rainfall totals from Wednesday to Wednesday night will likely average an inch or so.

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WINTER RETURNS THURSDAY

While we can still see rain or a mix early in the day Thursday, wet snow will take over as the morning wears on. The snow will probably not stick much on the roads (especially the main roads) during the daylight hours Thursday but other surfaces should cool enough to allow the snow to stick.

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Snow showers will linger into Thursday night. Current thinking for snow accumulations is 1-3″ although some local amounts to 4″ may be possible north of I-80.

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WEEKEND TURNAROUND

After a cold Friday with temperatures in the 20s, a nice rebound will occur over the weekend and we may even bounce back into the 50s by Sunday. A cool shot is then likely to arrive early next week.

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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will be loaded with information about the Wednesday-Thursday situation. Plus much more.  Weather For Weather Geeks will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the WFMJ app by 8:00pm.

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