Good morning!

A frigid MLK day today and tomorrow will be about the same. Temperatures across the Midwest and Ohio Valley are no warmer than the single digits this morning and much of the Midwest is below zero.


Notice how the air mass modifies coming across the unfrozen Great Lakes. Western Michigan is 20-25 degrees warmer than much of Wisconsin.

Meanwhile, lake-effect snow is ongoing across the snow belt. Most of this will stay in the primary snow belt through tomorrow. Only minor additional accumulations can be expected in the northern part of the WFMJ viewing area.




Of course the kids are off school today but tomorrow morning’s wind chill should be pretty similar to this morning. I would expect a lot of 2-hour delays tomorrow (although, again, I am no expect on this subject and am not consulted. Have questions about school adjustments? Talk to your superintendent).

Futurecast Wind Chill.png


A weak wave of low pressure will scoot by to our south on Wednesday. This will spread some light snow into the Valley for the afternoon and evening. While this will be a fairly minor “event”, it can cause some slippery travel for the evening commute.


I would expect an inch to perhaps 2 inches of fluffy snow out of this.


A major East Coast snow storm is looking increasingly likely for Friday into Saturday. The heavy snow will likely reach as far west as the spine of the Appalachians with *some* snow back into parts of our viewing area.

We are very early in the game with this and details on expect timing and snow amounts will not be clear until midweek, but there is decent model agreement this morning with regards to the *general* ideas.

Snapshots of GFS model depiction of things Friday and Saturday:


gfssat.pngOur confidence on the “big picture” is pretty good this far out.

Winter Storm Confidence Grid.png

Bullet points for our area:  

*Some* snow is likely Friday into Friday night and perhaps Saturday morning

* A BIG storm is unlikely.

*The storm track would promote all snow with no concerns for mixed precipitation

*The heaviest snow amounts are most likely in SE part of viewing area but that could still only be a few inches. Much higher totals seem likely south and east of Pittsburgh.

The storm is likely to have a HUGE impact on air travel across the country since major hubs such as DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia and NYC could face enormous delays and even closures.


The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast will have tons of information about the Friday/Saturday system with a look at the latest computer models. Plus: a pattern change is likely at the end of the month and start of February. We’ll talk about that as well. Weather For Weather Geeks will be on and as well as the WFMJ app by 8:00pm.







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