WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS JANUARY 29

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THURSDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

GOOOOOOD MORNING

The weather map this morning shows an “Alberta Clipper” rolling through the northern Great Lakes. A weak warm front sparked a few flurries across the Valley this morning but much of the snow did not even reach the ground (thanks to dry air in the lowest levels of the atmosphere).

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The cold front associated with this system will pivot across the Valley this evening. This can bring a more substantial band of snow. While we are not looking for a big accumulation, the impacts could be notable since it is coming toward the tail end of rush hour.

15 hour futurecast (notice the green….there might actually be some rain at the start of this):

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Snow showers will linger into the night with some lake-enhancement as well. Snow amounts will be very modest…a coating to at most an inch in most of the area. Perhaps 2 inches in areas likely to get a little lake-enhancement.

Models (for SE Trumbull i.e. the airport):

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NWS snow forecast:

ndfd_snow_cleveland_5.png Pretty similar to our snow map issued last night:

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FRIDAY: 

Blustery and cold tomorrow. There can be a flurry, mainly in the morning. Wind chills not much higher than 20.

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THE WEEKEND: 

Warm front will usher in a much different air mass. Highs Saturday 40-43. Sunday will be even warmer with a chance for showers by the end of the day:

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EARLY NEXT WEEK: 

Balmy for February! Still a chance for raindrops Monday with a weak front lingering.

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A major snow storm will impact the middle of the country. This will be more of a spring-style storm with heavy snow on the cold side and severe weather in the warm sector.

Snow:

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Severe weather possible Tuesday into Tuesday night as far north as the Ohio River:

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There might be thunder here Tuesday night and early Wednesday as the strong cold front approaches.

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LONG RANGE: 

Much colder behind that midweek system.

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2 DEGREE GUARANTEE: 

Back on track yesterday…..some tough forecasts ahead but we are up for the challenge!

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 WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast will focus on the big system that will impact the country next week and tackle the forecasting challenges that will arise beyond that. Plus an update on tonight’s snow. Weather For Weather Geeks will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the WFMJ app by 8:00pm.

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WEDNESDAY WEATHER BREIFING

GOOD WEDNESDAY MORNING!

After an “odd” day Tuesday with a morning high of 47 and then falling temperatures, today will be more of a classic January day with a mostly cloudy sky, cold temperatures and maybe a flurry in spots this morning. Highs near freezing.

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THURSDAY’S ALBERTA CLIPPER

A quick-moving “Alberta Clipper”-type system will swing through  the Great Lakes Thursday through Thursday night. This will provide a couple of opportunities for snow. The first will come Thursday morning and some may get a coating out of this. The second chance will be along the cold front Thursday evening into the overnight. Another coating to perhaps an inch will be possible.

NAM model depiction:

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The highest chance for getting an inch or more of snow will be in the northern half of our viewing area.

 

NWS snow forecast:

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FRIDAY: 

Flurries will linger into Friday morning. Otherwise, mostly cloudy and seasonably cold.

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WEEKEND/LONG RANGE: 

Here comes the mild air. Much of the weekend will be dry with highs in the 40s. Showers could push in late Sunday afternoon/evening.

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Balmy weather is likely through midweek.

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Meanwhile, a doozy of a winter storm will make its way through the Plains states and blizzard conditions will be possible early next week in the Upper Midwest and northern Plains. Nice dumping of snow:

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This system will drag a lot of moisture northward and will likely cause some springlike severe weather in parts of the Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley. The moisture content of the atmosphere (or “precipitable water”) will be quite high for early February.

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2 DEGREE GUARANTEE: 

We put our money where our mouth is and that’s why I post this graphic even when we are in the middle of a rough stretch.

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 WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is will tackle Thursday’s snow threat in more detail and we’ll also take a good look at the springlike storm early next week. Could we hear thunder??  Weather For Weather Geeks will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the WFMJ app by 8:00pm.

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TUESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

Good morning!

As expected, the approaching cold front has not been able to squeeze out much moisture. If you left the car out last night in hopes of giving it a bath you may be disappointed. For most, not enough rain to wash the salt off.

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It’s VERY mild this morning! But colder air is not too far to the west and temperatures will fall this afternoon.

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Any more rain today? Not much….maybe a sprinkle. There might be a late-day flurry. 15 hour futurecast:

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WEDNESDAY: 

A more typical January day with clouds, chilly breezes and maybe a flurry. Best chance to see a few flakes will be in the morning.

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END OF THE WEEK: 

Pretty uneventful weather to wrap up the final work week of January. Not much more than the occasional passing flurry.

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LONG RANGE: 

The weekend will bring a nice warm up. A few raindrops may accompany the mild air but it should not be much. Temperatures will be well above average through the middle of next week.

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The Climate Prediction Center 6-10 outlook shoes this trend nicely as well.

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There will be a major winter storm in the middle of the country early next week. This will draw the mild air north as it moves across the country but eventually we will get back to more typical early February weather.

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2 DEGREE GUARANTEE: 

A miss yesterday but I did not hear any complains with sunshine and highs in the mid 40s!

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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is for geeks and non-geeks alike! This evening’s video will focus on the medium and long range since the short range forecast is pretty uneventful.  Weather For Weather Geeks will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the WFMJ app by 8:00pm.

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MONDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

GOOD MORNING…..

As expected, the Valley managed to dodge the massive storm that paralyzed a huge area. Some of the snow totals were astounding with 40″+ reported in some of the mountainous terrain.

Snow Depth

Today will be a pretty nice January day! With a mix of sun and clouds temperatures will get up to about 40 this afternoon. Not a bad day to wash the car.

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A cold front is on the way, however. Temperatures will bottom out early tonight and then rise overnight as the front approaches. Rain showers will dampen some places late tonight and early tomorrow.

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Temperatures will fall during the midday and afternoon tomorrow and there might be a sprinkle or flurry in the afternoon.

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REST OF THE WEEK: 

A more “typical” January day Wednesday with clouds, chilly breezes and flurries. Highs will be near freezing.

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Thursday looks benign and then the next disturbance could bring a few snowflakes on Friday.

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LONG RANGE: 

There are NO signs of sustained cold through the first week of February. In fact, temperatures will be well above-average during the medium-range with a couple of 50 degree days possible during the weekend and early next week. These numbers are probably too low around the 1st of February.

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The start of February is likely to be mild in much of the country. Does it stay that way all month? The climate models say yes but I’m not ready to buy that idea just yet. Stay tuned for our February forecast late this week.

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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast returns this evening with a more detailed look at my long range thoughts. Plus: Could the East Coast have to deal with another storm late this week into the weekend? Probably not but it might be close.  Weather For Weather Geeks will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the WFMJ app by 8:00pm.

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