Good Thursday morning!
Last night’s rain was a bit of a bust as amounts were quite paltry.
Why so little? Squall lines of rain over the Southeast “hogged” a lot of the moisture from the Gulf of Mexico….essentially halting the deep moisture from coming this far north.
Today? Not bad! We already have some sunshine working in this morning.
Temperatures will rise a few degrees today after a very warm start. We’ll spend most of the day between 57-61 degrees with a mix of sunshine and clouds. The wind will stay noticeable.
After a much colder night, Friday will be a sunny, quiet day with high pressure just off to our south. High temperatures in the middle 40s, just slightly below average.
The first snowstorm of the season will impact the Midwest Friday into Saturday, with a good dumping of snow for parts of Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan:
For us, this will actually come in as rain late Saturday afternoon and evening. The low pressure area will be strengthening as it comes east so more warm air will get drawn northward. (The day may actually start woth a flurry along the warm front)
Saturday night will be windy and as the cold air wraps in behind the low, rain will change over to snow showers. There can be some local coatings on non-paved surfaces by Sunday morning.
The first true lake-effect event of the season will be underway by Sunday morning. The heaviest snow will be in the usual spots from Ashtabula County east toward NW PA and SW NY.
For our viewing area, this will be mostly just “mood” snow….flurries flying around at times but not really sticking much. A coating to an inch is a possibility for area north of I-80 and especially north of Cortland, Greenville, etc.
It will be blustery and cold Sunday; our coldest afternoon since late March.
As long as you or your loved ones’ travel plans don’t involve the western US things are looking great before and during Thanksgiving. The major hubs in the East will have no weather-related problems on Wednesday.
And Thanksgiving Day should be dry and mild with some sunshine.
After a cold start to the week, temperatures will get above average by Thanksgiving weekend.
THIS DATE IN WEATHER HISTORY:
On this date LAST YEAR…..the temperature was 9 degrees at daybreak….a new record low for November 19.
TWO DEGREE GUARANTEE:
After being too cool for a few days in a row, we dared the atmosphere to overachieve on Wednesday and the atmosphere did not accept the challenge. Still, we were within 2 degrees.
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather video will go online this evening between 7:30-8:00. Tonight: fun with computer models and the weekend system and a thorough look at next week’s weather. Any cold coming in the longer range? Weather Geeks will have a look.