Lots to talk about today so let’s get right to it. We have ONE more balmy November day to enjoy today with highs almost TWENTY degrees above average.
Meanwhile, rain is still off to our west but it is only slowly pushing east.
We expect rain to spread across the area from west to east this evening between 8-10p. 15 hour simulated radar:
Rainfall totals overnight will likely average 0.50-0.70″. The rain can fall heavily for a time.
The wind will be a factor today. We have another one of those “low level jet”s screaming across parts of the region. Wind speeds at 5,000 feet are 80-90 mph this morning.
The core of that jet will stay off to our west. Unlike last Friday and Saturday, the atmosphere won’t be able to efficiently “pull down” the wind energy aloft today so while it will be breezy to windy at times….we are not expecting the kind of wind we had several days ago. Western Ohio will have stronger winds.
We look for sustained winds of 12-25 mph with some gusts to 30-35 mph.
After a wet night, we will dry out Thursday with perhaps some intervals of sun. Temperatures will hold about steady in the 50s and then the mercury will start to fall in the afternoon.
High pressure will bring sunshine but it will be chilly with highs in the mid 40s…a few degrees below average.
Here is where we pay the piper for all the mild Autumn weather we have had. A weak area of low pressure will track across the region Saturday. The precipitation with this system will come in as rain around midday or early afternoon but then it will mix with and change over to snow by dinner time.
I don’t expect the snow to cause any travel problems as temperatures will be above freezing early Saturday evening. Overnight, this will transition into more of a lake-effect event as much colder air wraps in behind the system. Lake-effect snow showers will continue on Sunday. mainly aimed at Ashtabula County in Ohio and much of NW PA.
Any accumulation in our viewing area? I think far northern Mercer and Trumbull counties could see an inch or so. Nothing more than a candy coating for the rest of us. The primary NW PA snowbelt could see several inches.
Cold Sunday! Blustery too.
Next week will start cold but look for a warming trend by Thanksgiving as the pattern across the US amplifies. A big upper low will bring cold and unsettled weather to the West while a ridge will park over the East.
This SHOULD result in quiet weather around the holiday. Stay tuned.
THIS DATE IN WEATHER HISTORY:
On this date LAST YEAR…..we had the 2nd coldest November day on record in Youngstown! The high was just 18. EIGHTEEN!
TWO DEGREE GUARANTEE:
Another overachiever Tuesday but we were within 2 degrees. Green checkmark!
WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:
The Valley’s most detailed weather video will go online this evening between 7:30-8:00. This evening’s video will be packed with information about tonight’s rain, the weekend cold and snow and Thanksgiving week’s weather.