WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS SEPTEMBER 30

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WEDNESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

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Good morning!

Some beneficial rain across the region although some places in PA had a bit too much.

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Some leftover drizzle out there this morning; the balance of the day will just be cloudy, cool, breezy and less humid. Temperatures will only rise a couple of degrees today.

This is a true Fall air mass sliding through the Midwest.

8ATEMPS

Meanwhile, Joaquin is now a hurricane. More on Joaquin in a minute. Current view of the storm:

TROPSAT

THURSDAY: 

An uneventful day for us with clouds, some sun and cool temperatures.

ndfd_t2max_cleveland_2

FRIDAY: 

This is when things get interesting for the East Coast and the Appalachians as tropical moisture gets thrown up and over a stalled front. Heavy rain will break out. For us, a pretty cloudy and cool day but not much more than a shower. We should be in decent shape for football Friday evening….just typical October chill.

frievegfs

WEEKEND: 

A wild and potentially dangerous situation for many to our east. Even if Joaquin does not make a landfall, soaking rains will lead to a big flood risk along the East Coast and back into the mountains.

QPF

The current NHC cone for Joaquin is pretty wide, showing continued uncertainty.

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That said, the cone has shifted west since last night, reflecting the trends in the models. The GFS has a scary situation:

SUNGFS

WHAT ABOUT *OUR* WEATHER??

Ok, back to what this means for us. Independent of what Joaquin may do, Saturday is likely to be a blustery, cold and rainy day. The rain is not likely to be heavy but….yick.

SATGFS

Highs might only be 50-54.

On Sunday, the forecast is more dependent on what Joaquin does. If the GFS idea shown above is right, we may have a windy and rainy afternoon/evening/night. If Joaquin stays out to sea, we still may see showers but it would be less rain and wind.

Stay tuned!

TUESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

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Morning!
We had some rain overnight but most of the region is in a break around 9:00 this morning. The afternoon and evening will be the wettest part of the day today.

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15 hour futurecast:

hrrr_2015092911_ref_cleveland

WEDNESDAY: 

The slow-moving front will finally push east of the region on Wednesday but the day will start with some rain. Even though the steadiest rain will be gone in the afternoon, there might be some spotty mist or drizzle.

8AWEDS

Cooler and less humid Wednesday. Highs around 60 or so. A real chill in the air.

Rain totals over the next couple of days will likely average 0.75″-1″.

SREF

There might be some higher totals south and east of Youngstown, as shown in the NWS forecast:

nwsrain

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 1: 

The best day of the week and it will certainly feel Autumnal with highs again around 60 or so.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: 

If you have been following me on social media over the last couple of days, I have been talking about the very challenging forecast for Friday and the weekend. The picture is a bit clearer today. Odds now favor a decent Friday with the rain staying east.

FRI

But….Saturday is looking worse. Models are in better agreement today that moisture will push in from the East as a strong low pressure system impacts the East Coast.

SAT

Sunday will bring a chance for showers and I will look at Sunday more carefully later today.

MONDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

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Good morning!

Breaking news! It rained last night and will rain some more this week!

45a

Some places picked up a tenth of an inch or so last night:

DMARain

Expect a few more bouts of light rain or drizzle today, especially through midday. 15 hour futurecast:

hrrr_2015092810_ref_cleveland

Highs today will be on the mild side.

ndfd_t2max_cleveland_1

TUESDAY: 

A cold front will slide into the region and there can be showers just about anytime. Outside chance for thunder as well. It will also be the last warmer-than-average day of the week.

tues

WEDNESDAY: 

This is where the forecast starts to get tricky. The GFS (shown below) would have you believe the front will be a “clean sweep”, pushing east of the region and taking the rain away. The European, NAM and Canadian models form a wave of low pressure on the front earlier, slowing it down and keeping the moisture around for much of Wednesday….especially south and east of Youngstown.

weds

I lean in the slower direction and think we might need to allow for a little rain Wednesday.

REST OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND: 

Confidence is lower than average for this time frame as the models are all over the place. On the table:

1) A dry period Thursday through Sunday.

2) Lingering showers Thursday and Friday….perhaps into Saturday morning.

3) High temperatures that could range from 55-65, depending on if the clouds and moisture linger. Stay tuned.

LONG RANGE: 

A cool-ish pattern looks to settle in but these temperatures are actually pretty close to average for the first half of October.

16daygfs

FRIDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

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TGIF! Today will not be as “pristine” looking as the last few days but it will still be a nice one with sunshine and a veil of high cirrus clouds.

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FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: 

Looking good this evening with mild temperatures. Next week is likely to be the first “chilly” Friday night of the season.

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SATURDAY: 

A thicker overcast is likely so any sunshine will be pretty dim, especially as you head south through the viewing area. It may “look” like rain but it will be a dry day.

sathighs

SUNDAY: 

We added the chance for some rain to the forecast last evening for Sunday and that looks like the right call. There are still enough differences among the computer models with respect to timing and rain amounts to keep the chance in the 40% range but the chance may go up as new information becomes available today. A couple of models for Sunday morning:

gfssunamnamsunam

Rainfall totals will probably be under a quarter of an inch with the lowest totals north and highest south.

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LUNAR ECLIPSE: 

Well things are not looking great for viewing the total lunar eclipse Sunday evening. We may get lucky and see some thinning of the clouds (especially west of Youngstown) but I am not real optimistic at this point.

nam_cloud_total_ne_25 gfs_total_cloud_ma_12

You can find more information on the eclipse in THIS blog post from a few days ago.

NEXT WEEK: 

A warm up is coming for early in the week before a cold front arrives during midweek. Some chilly nights and seasonable days behind that front.

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THURSDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

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Good morning!

More sunny and warm weather today….what a shock!

day1

The weather is great but of course we need rain. The latest drought monitor shows a growing area of “abnormally dry” conditions:

DROUGHT

FRIDAY/WEEKEND:

The forecast remains a dry one although I think there will be more clouds. The system that will bring blustery and rainy weather to the Carolinas and parts of the mid-Atlantic region will spread rain perhaps as far north as I-70 Saturday:

SAT

The latest European model actually bring showers into the Valley Sunday. Not ready to bite on that yet but it certainly is worth watching.

ECLIPSE: 

Have a look at this video that I posted last evening: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t1sUdsNA3j8

Latest models are showing at least SOME clouds Sunday evening. Worst case scenario of a thick overcast is on the table but perhaps not the most likely situation yet.

gfs_total_cloud_ma_16

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

This evening’s video will take a more in-depth look at the weekend and the forecast challenged for next week.