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Good morning all,

After a comfortable night it is a fine August morning across the Valley with a mix of sunshine and clouds. From a distance, the weather map looks benign this morning:


But upon closer inspection, we have lake effect RAIN ongoing east of Cleveland:


This is the same process that creates lake effect snow in the winter. Cool air is blowing over warm water, leading to uplift, which leads to clouds and precipitation. The air “upstairs” is VERY cool for August, all thanks to the big upper low sitting over the northern Great Lakes:


That low will continue to drive chilly Canadian air southward over the next couple of days. Highs today will not be much better than 71 or so:


Those lake effect showers might try to clip far northern Trumbull County but the rest of the region will stay dry today. The sky will look like October this afternoon as it will be cloudier than this morning.


Even cooler than today as it will be cloudier. Any sunshine early will be “self destruct sunshine”….what’s that? That’s what I like to call these situations where the air aloft is so cold that clouds form very easily. The sun heats the ground which causes the air above the ground to become buoyant. As that air rises it cools to it’s dewpoint (reaches saturation) and clouds form. These clouds form much more quickly when the air aloft is super cool.

A shower or two can fall out of these clouds Wednesday. Grabbing the umbrella is not a bad idea.



Similar to Wednesday with a smaller chance for a sprinkle/shower. More in the way of afternoon sunshine too.



A warming trend. Friday looks beautiful with a chilly start and then highs in the upper 70s. The weekend will bring highs between 80-84. Small chance for a shower or thunderstorm on Sunday.

Very dry over the next 5 days; really tomorrow’s spotty showers should about do it for any rain.



Still on track for a warm period as we head toward Labor Day. 16 day numbers off the GFS ensemble model:



Tropical Storm Erika could become a hurricane as it tracks west-northwest…possibly impacting the Bahamas over the weekend. Effects on the US are not clear yet but it’s possible that it scrapes the Southeast next week.



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