BLOG+VIDEO: Breaking Down The Weekend Storm

 

The video in this blog post has some details on the cold and wind chills over the next 24 hours. Let’s talk about the weekend storm. It seems like we are in a pattern where we have a winter storm every weekend….I blame Mike Joyce; him leaving angered the Weather Gods, haha.

This will not be a huge, blockbuster storm but will be an inconvenience.

TIMING: 

By Saturday morning, light snow will have pushed into the viewing area. 7amThe snow will continue at varying intensity for much of the day. Some of the time it will be light. Other times it will fall at a good clip, especially in the afternoon. 4pm: 4pm

The precipitation will taper off overnight with most of the accumulating snow finished by midnight at the latest. 1am

MODELS

The computer models we use to help us with the forecast are generally in pretty good agreement at this stage of the game when it comes to the timing of the system. The track is not “set in stone” by any means as there are some differences found on the various models.

Current average among this set of models is about 3″ of snow at the YNG airport. The European models is not included in this average; it has about 4″. models

IMPACTS

Travel will be impacted all day, especially in the afternoon. travelCumulative accumulations by 7am: Around 1/2″-1″

Cumulative accumulations by noon: 1-2.5″

Cumulative accumulations by 10pm: 3-5″

 

FORECAST 

We think the most likely accumulation is 3-5″, based on the current models and other factors. RANGES

WHAT CAN GO WRONG? 

1) The lower end of the forecast is more likely if mixed precipitation or even rain gets involved Saturday evening. This looked more likely yesterday; we have to be on guard for a last-minute adjustment in the modeling back to this idea. Best chance for sleet and/or rain will be around and south of Rt 30.

The lower end could also be more likely if the snow is very light all morning with little accumulation.

2) The high end of the range or even a bit more could happen if some heavy banding sets up in the afternoon and there is no mixing with sleet/rain.

 

 

 

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s