BLOG: November Review, December Preview, Winter Update

November is in the books and what a November it was in Youngstown! At times it seemed as though we had skipped November and December and went straight to January. Here’s a look at how this November shakes out historically.

As always, statistics are for the Youngstown-Warren airport in Vienna, Trumbull County. Your backyard may have had some very different numbers.

SNOW: It was a snowier than average month and, thanks to some “bonus” snow on Thanksgiving, this November ranks comfortably in the Top 10:

snowranks

This November ranks 5th for number of days that measurable snow was recorded: snowmeas

TEMPERATURES: It was, of course, quite cold. Here’s the complete November stats, which include temperatures and precipitation: novyng

So, it was 4.3 degrees below average for the month. That is a significant number over a 30 day period. No surprise, it was one of the coldest Novembers on record in Youngstown: tempranks

We were not alone. Look at how much of the country had a colder-than-average November: usnov

With the VERY cold start to 2014, a cool-ish Summer and now a very cold November, it is no surprise that 2014 is shaping up to be one of the coldest calendar years on record in Youngstown:

2014

So what does December hold??? Well if you were not a fan of how November went, I have some good news for you, Winter has been put on hold for a while. The first half of December is not looking all that cold and snowy at all. The current weather pattern features a cold air mass charging east, but no HUGE troughs over the East, no chunk of the dreaded POLAR VORTEX dumb belling across southern Canada. In other words, cold shots in this pattern are brief. 500now

This week will bring some ups and downs temperature-wise, but by the weekend it’s looking like much of the country will have Pacific, not Arctic air: 500sat

Here’s the 16 day temperature outlook on the GFS Ensemble model. I think it’s in the ballpark through Day 10 then is probably too cold after that. I get we see lots of highs in the 40s and even some 50+ days through mid-month. KYNG_2014113012_min_max_16

As we get closer to Christmas, I suspect the pattern will start to favor more frequent cold shots and probably some opportunities for snow.

WINTER UPDATE: I think our Winter (December-February) forecast is on track. If you remember, we are forecasting a colder than average Winter (not quite as cold as last year) and a somewhat snowier than average Winter (not quite as snowy as last year).  The forecast does not need to change despite the expected mild start to December. Remember….last Winter was BRUTAL and yet December was MILDER than average! (By a little.) dec13

For “fun” I thought I would see what the Winter (Dec-Feb) was like after our coldest and snowiest Novembers on record. Does a cold and snowy November mean that the Winter as a whole will be bad? Some years yes, some no….but the AVERAGE of all those Winters was cold: tempcomposite

Precipitation (rain and snow) was above average when you combine all those years: precipcomposite

So, you could say that the ODDS of a cold and snowy Winter are higher in seasons that follow a cold and snowy November.

Thanks for reading!

 

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