BLOG: Will We Be Shoveling Soon?

Before the weekend hits, wanted to do a quick post on the potential for snow early next week. First of all, the rest of Friday will bring scattered flurries and snow showers and we will have to watch for some small accumulations in the stronger bands. There can still be another inch or two in the western and northern part of the WFMJ viewing area.

The weekend will be cold and largely uneventful. A touch of snow can occur Saturday night and early Sunday with perhaps a coating in spots.

Very late Sunday night and early Monday, 2 features will be converging on the Valley. 1) The powerful arctic cold front that will bring in VERY cold air (for November) 2) A quick-moving area of low pressure to our south and east: slpmonThat low will spread snow across the Appalachians and back into parts of the Ohio Valley. The question is: how FAR west does the snow get. It depends on the exact track of the system. As is often the case a few days out, there are some differences in the various computer models we look at.

The challenges can be visualized by looking at the SREF (Short Range Ensemble Forecast) Model: There is a big “spread” amongst the 21 members of the ensemble: sref

 

What do I think? Well with the information available, I suspect this is a 1-3″ type of event, which isn’t a BIG storm but could be enough to cause some travel issues Monday.

On the subject of COLD…Tuesday is going to be brutal. Temperatures will be no higher than the mid 20s and check out the potential wind chills Tuesday morning: gfs_windchill_ohio_35These numbers are likely TOO cold but even if they are off by 10-15 degrees, it will still feel like the teens! The air will be coming straight from the arctic circle. Here’s the jet stream Tuesday: jettues

 

But we WILL break out of this pattern toward the end of next week. Check out the change in the jet stream by Thursday: jetthurs

 

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