BLOG: Quick September Preview

I will do a blog reviewing the Summer season early next week, but I thought today I would do a quick preview of September. First of all, here is what we know:

1) We will continue to lose daylight at a rapid pace in September. The length of our “day” will go from just over 13 hours to under 12 hours. Here’s the sunrise and sunset time in Youngstown on the last day of September: sunsetsept30

2) Our average highs and lows will begin to drop quickly. We start the month with average highs in the upper 70s, but by September 30th, the average high is in the mid 60s: averages

Here is what we THINK we know:

1) September will start quite warm and with a fair amount of humidity to boot. The forecasted upper level pattern late next week shows a ridge of high pressure over the Southeast, which will promote steamy conditions across our region: 500thurs

 

2) The entire first half of September is likely to be warmer than average. This temperature anomaly map shows the average of the last 7 runs of the CFS (Climate Forecast System) model for September 2-12: sept313While there can be a cool day here and there, the models are clearly pointing toward a warm couple of weeks.

Here is what we are less confident in:

1) The forecast for the entire month. Any monthly outlook is bound to be less accurate than a short term forecast. That said, The long-range models are advertising a warmer-than-average month around Youngstown: septKeep in mind that with the first half of the month likely to be quite warm overall, the second half of September COULD be cooler than average but the warm start could still make the month as a whole above average.

Precipitation-wise….it’s logical to conclude that if the month is warm in the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic and Great Lakes, and increasingly cooler air masses are trying to invade from Canada….a battle zone will set up somewhere, leading to a wet month in that zone. That’s what the latest models are saying: septrainWhile there is a stronger signal for a wet month in the Upper Midwest, we may have more rain than a typical September here as well.

Have a good holiday weekend! Hope to see you at the fair.

Eric

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