Tuesday Morning Severe Weather Threat Analysis

Good morning all,

Here’s a quick update on the threat for severe weather across northeast Ohio and western Pennsylvania. First off, here’s the video that goes along with this update:

If you are at work and can’t watch the video or are more of a reader, here’s the skinny:

You are no doubt aware that the southern US is in the middle of a nasty tornado outbreak, all thanks to a slow-moving weather system that has gotten itself stuck in the Midwest. Here’s this morning’s radar, satellite and surface analysis: sfcGenerally speaking, the zone between the warm front and cold front is where we will be watching for more ugly storms today.  The big question is: how far east does the warm front get? Anyone east of the warm front is likely to be in stable, rain-cooled air and will not have a very high chance of seeing strong or severe storms.

The Storm Prediction Center’s outlook for today has Ohio in the “Slight” risk, including these odds for seeing a damaging wind gust: windAnyone in the yellow area has a 15% chance of a damaging wind gust somewhere within 25 miles of a location. The odds of large hail are similar: hail

The tornado odds are very low in eastern Ohio and 2% in central and western areas: tor

CAPE is a measure of instability in the atmosphere, and those values will certainly be higher west of Youngstown this afternoon: cape

While instability is lacking, there is a fair amount of “wind shear” in the area today. Wind shear is the change in wind direction and/or speed as you go up in the atmosphere. High wind shear can aid in the formation of hail and tornadoes. BUT, you need instability to get the air to rise high enough for those things to occur. I have overlain the wind direction at the surface (generally SE) with the wind direction at 5,000 feet (generally SSW) this afternoon: windarrows

 

Bottom line: I think odds favor the WFMJ viewing area staying in the more stable sector this afternoon and evening, resulting in a very low chance of severe weather. There may be a thundershower in spots.

As always, stay tuned on social media as I will be updating things all day as needed. Thanks for reading!

Eric

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