BLOG: A Look Back and Ahead

As we start a new month, I thought it would be a good time to examine some of the COLD, hard facts about the weather over the last few months, as well as take a look at the upcoming weather in both the short and long range.

First of all, I SUSPECT (but am not ready to guarantee) that we are done with accumulating snow this season. With just over 89″, we have had another above-average season and our 3rd snowiest winter on record:

snoww

I remain a bit skeptical of the records at the YNG airport. I would be willing to bet that NO other reporting station in the country has had their 4 snowiest winters on record ALL SINCE THE 2007-2008 winter. We have had some snowy winters to be sure….but really?

Anyway, here is how the snow breaks down by month this season. January, no surprise, was the snowiest…but December and February were not far behind: snowchart

The first quarter of 2014 has been remarkably cold. In fact it has been the 2nd coldest opening 3 months of a year since 1930 in Youngstown: jantomarch

It’s interesting that as cold as March was, it was NOT all that snowy! It was the 3rd coldest March on record, but with just 8″, was actually the 31st LEAST snowy (or 53rd snowiest) March since 1930: compare

Ok, let’s talk about the future. After a windy and warm afternoon today, we have several round of rain heading our way later Wednesday through Friday. The Indians’ home opener Friday afternoon could have some problems. Here’s the weather map at the start of the day: fridayThat approaching cold front will spark showers much of the day. There might even be a clap of thunder. Best chance for a period of dry weather to get the game in will be after sunset.

Beyond Friday, we are going to head into a period of cooler-than-average weather for the weekend and early next week. Not COLD, but cool for early April. The pattern at 18,000 feet looks much like the pattern we had for most of winter. Ridge of high pressure in the West, trough of low pressure around the Great Lakes: 500nexttue

BUT, that pattern won’t get “locked in” like it did in winter. In fact, long-range models are suggesting that a more “zonal”, west-to-east flow will take hold toward mid-month…keeping the cold locked up in Canada and in the Pacific Northwest. A weak high pressure ridge may try to develop over the Southeast, allowing mild air to make inroads. It is also a pattern that could lead to a lot of severe weather in the middle of the country. Here’s NEXT Saturday: 500nextweekend

So, the departures from average look like this for days 5-10 (the coming weekend through early next week): days510

But then, days 10-20, the middle of April, look like this: days1020Not a WARM pattern for Northeast Ohio and western Pennsylvania, but not a cold one either. That warmth over the Southeast will visit more often, but cold to the north will win a few battles too.

The latest CFS climate model for the moth of April suggests that when we look back at April a month from today, it will go in the record books as near or even slightly above average in our part of the country: aprilAfter 3 VERY cold month, an AVERAGE April sounds great!

Just for fun, what about May? The same model paints a warm picture, although look at the cold pocket right around the Great Lakes, which of course are still partly ice-covered and will be slow to warm. People living close to the lake shores will frequently ask “where is Spring??” well into May as that cold water will have a big impact. may

 

Thanks for reading and enjoy a beautiful Tuesday afternoon!

Eric

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