BLOG: A Look At Where We’ve Been, Where We Are Going

With my attention focused on the weekend (non)storm, I did not get a chance to do a recap of Meteorological Winter over the weekend. Meteorological Winter is the 3 coldest months of the year (Dec-Feb). This is different than Astronomical Winter, which is based on the Earth’s position in it’s orbit around the Sun and runs from about Dec 21/22-March 21/22 each year.

Of course, the headline of this winter is “IT’S BEEN COLD AND SNOWY!!”. But let’s take a deep dive into the numbers to see HOW cold and snowy it has been.

First, an overview of how each day of the season went temperature-wise: wintertempsYou can see just how often we were below-average, especially in January and February.

Here’s the snowfall graph for Dec-Feb and how this year compares to average and the snowiest winter ever (just 3 years ago): wintersnow

Speaking of snow, it of course was one of the snowiest December-February periods on record here. The list:

snowhist

 

This of course only tells part of the story, as snow did occur in November and early this March. How we stack up when you take the entire “snow season” into account: snowoctnow

Notice the top 6 are ALL recent years! WHY is that? I am not sure but it’s interesting and merits some investigating!

Back to temperatures. For Meteorological Winter, this will go down as the 10th coldest season on record:

temphist

 

December was actually a touch above average. If you just look at January-February…janfeb

We have had many below-zero low temperatures. You can add 1 to our total this year as we were of course below zero this morning: belowzero

And high temperatures have been below freezing a LOT: highs

Add one more to this year, as it will only be in the 20s this afternoon.  Put another way…since our first sub-freezing high on November 24, 55% of days have featured a high below freezing in Youngstown.

Is there relief in sight? We will bust into an early Spring?

No.

While it is unlikely that the kind of harsh, record-breaking cold that we have had over the last 24 hours will return…temperatures should generally be below average for the foreseeable future. There will be the occasional mild day, but they will be few and far between. The latest GFS Ensemble model temperature outlook for days 8-16:

816

 

After that, the CFS (Climate Forecast System) outlook isn’t great either. March 18-28:

1929

 

March 23-April 2: 243

 

Wish I had better news! But thanks for reading anyway.

Eric

One thought on “BLOG: A Look At Where We’ve Been, Where We Are Going

  1. Eric, our old weatherman didn’t give us this much bad weather. Lighten up. LOL. I like your daily weather video. Thanks for all the good work.

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