Blog: Wild Next 24 Hours; Harsh Cold To Return

The day started frosty and foggy with temperatures in the 20s, but a strong warm front is tracking our way this morning with rain along it. Here’s the radar snapshot around 9:30am:

currentAmazing that there is lightning with this, considering it is occurring over a deep snowpack!

Plan on a wet midday across the Valley. Here’s the 1pm simulated radar:

1pmsim

 

After the first wave of rain lifts across the area, a break in the rain will occur for much of the late afternoon and evening hours. It will turn milder and we may reach our high VERY late in the day…perhaps after 9pm. Check out the temperature map for 9pm this evening, it’s easy to pick out the warm front!

9pmtempsNear 60 in central Ohio! We will probably get into the lower 50s this evening around Youngstown.

The threat for severe weather is certainly highest from I-70 south. That’s the area the Storm Prediction Center has outlined in the enhanced risk (yellow):

day1There is a “moderate” risk of severe weather in Kentucky and Tennessee.

The line of showers and thunderstorms that is expected to bring the threat for wind damage will roll through the Ohio Valley late this evening through the overnight. The simulated radar at 1:00am shows the line bearing down on NE Ohio/western PA:

1amNotice the line looks more threatening with deeper reds from Columbus on south. Another source with a view of what the radar may look like around this time:

1amradSo what do I expect to happen around the Mahoning and Shenango Valleys? A brief, perhaps less than 20 minute period of wind speeds that could exceed 45 mph as this line pushes through sometime between 11pm-2am. A period of pretty heavy rain around the same time.

I think the risk for wind speeds high enough to cause damage is pretty low, but not zero. The wind at 3,000-5,000 feet will be SCREAMING and it won’t take much to bring some of that wind energy down. The wind at 5,000 feet will be between 70-90 mph late this evening:

850

The threat for hail and tornadoes is very low.

One thing for sure, we don’t need this rain, with the deep snow pack and warming temperatures. Flooding is a concern, especially near rivers and in areas of poor drainage. Some basement flooding is possible. The snow pack contains about 1″ of water right now. How much rain will fall? Looks like an average of 0.75-1.00″.

Here’s the latest rain forecast from the NWS:

qpfPretty close to 1″.

The latest SREF model, an ensemble model with 21 “members”, gives an average of 1″ or so, with a range of about 0.60″ to 1.30″:

sref

 

The latest river forecasts from the NWS show the Mahoning River rising above flood stage at Leavittsburg and Youngstown.

Leavittsburg (notice crest is not until Saturday morning):

leav

Youngstown:

yo

 

Ice jams could cause additional problems.

Finally, a look at the long range. Unfortunately, we are heading right back into the pattern that has produced the harsh cold for much of this winter. Take a look at the 5-10 temperature outlook across the country:

5-10Temperatures may be around 10 degrees below average for that period (Feb 25-March 2) here.  The actual numbers (highs/lows) on this same model for the next 16 days are kind of obscene, especially right around the end of February and start of March:

gefs

 

Don’t throw tomatoes at me!

Eric

 

 

 

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