Blog: More Winter Before The Thaw

Most of us are itching for a break from the relentless winter weather…and it is still coming. But before that milder air gets in here, we will be dealing with more cold and snow.

Of course, it’s been a very cold first half of February….not only here but in much of the country. Here’s the temperature anomaly map for the month so far:

febHere in Youngstown, we are running a whopping 9 degrees below average for the month so far.

While we have a healthy snow pack here, there is actually quite a bit more snow on the ground to our east and west. Many places in northwest Ohio and central Pennsylvania have over 9″ of snow on the ground (with many spots having well over a foot):

depth

 

Today, a pretty weak system will cruise through. Here’s what the radar looked like at 8:30am:

Capture

 

The simulated radar at noon shows light snow across the Valley:

hrrrnoon

 

How much snow today? I still think generally 1/2″ to 1″. Watch for slick travel around midday and early afternoon. The snow will taper off and end later in the afternoon.

A more significant low pressure area will track through the Valley late Monday and Monday night. Snow will begin just after sunset. While mixed precipitation will occur closer to Interstate 70, this looks to be all snow for the Valley. Here’s how the radar should generally look at 7:00pm:

ptypeThe pink color toward I-70 is the mix. There MIGHT be some sleet mixing in as far north as southern Columbiana County, but again this will be all snow for just about the entire WFMJ viewing area.

How much??? Enough to shovel and plow, for sure. By the time the snow tapers off early Tuesday morning, I suspect an average of 3″ will have accumulated in most spots.

The SREF model has 21 “members”. When you combine today’s light snow with Monday night’s snow, the forecast from those 21 members of the model range from 1″ to 6″. The average is 3.5″:

srefAnd I think that forecast is pretty realistic. 1/2″ today, then 3″ Monday night.

What are the odds Monday night’s system “overachieves” and gives us more than 4″? Low, but not super low. NOAA has the odds of more than 4″ of snow around 40% here:

oddsI would put the odds closer to 30% myself, but 40% is not unreasonable.

After Monday night’s snow, YES it is going to warm up. BUT, the warm up does not look as dramatic as we had hoped a few days ago. 60 does NOT look reachable now. But 50 is within reach. Here’s a map of Thursday’s highs on the European model:

thurshighs

 

Friday’s highs:

frihighs

 

And Saturday’s outlook:

sathighs

 

It may be tough to get out and enjoy Thursday’s mild temperatures because rain is likely. Friday and Saturday should bring quieter weather.

Enjoy the mild air if you can! Cold is likely to return after Saturday. The latest GFS Ensemble model’s temperature outlook for the next 16 days looks like this:

gefs

 

And March? The latest climate models are painting a chilly picture for the month as a whole. Sure, there will be mild periods…but the month overall is likely to be colder than average.

march

 

Have a great Sunday and thanks for reading!

Eric

 

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