A Guide to the Next 10 Days of Weather

I would like to think that, now that we are done with this morning’s frigid temperatures, we are DONE with the worst of this winter’s cold! This morning’s lows were impressive. A clear sky and relatively fresh snowpack will give you temperatures like this:

lows

 

We have the cold, but at least we don’t have the MESS that is occurring in the Southeast and mid-Atlantic states. This morning’s radar is “pretty” but this is a serious situation in Georgia and the Carolinas:

serad

 

There will be tens or hundreds of thousands without power for days as a result of the ice accumulation. Major cities such as Charlotte will have their biggest snow event in years. If you have a flight out of PIT, CAK, or CLE over the next couple of days…call ahead as there may be travel delays. Not because of our weather, but because so many major hubs are dealing with the hideous weather.

The storm is a miss for us…the snow will get about as far west as the Appalachian Mountains to our east tonight. Here’s the simulated radar for the middle of the night:

tonightrad

For the Mahoning and Shenango Valleys, quiet weather will be the rule through Friday morning. Our next weather maker will be a weak “Alberta Clipper” system that is scheduled to arrive on Friday. The latest computer models are not that impressed with the system, generally giving us an inch or so Friday and Friday evening.

This morning’s SREF (Short Range Ensemble Forecast) model looks like this:

sref

On Friday (the 14th), the mean, or average of all 21 members of this model is 1/2 inch or so by Friday evening. Some members (each line represents one of the “members”)  of the model give us more snow Saturday, but there is not much support on other models for that. I lean toward the idea a dry and cold Saturday for now.

For a couple of days now you have (hopefully) heard me honking about a BIG warmup next week. It still looks on track for late in the week. The pattern will undergo a very significant change across the country over the next 10 days. Have a look at the pattern today vs. what is expected in 9 days:

Today: a trough of low pressure over the Midwest and Southeast.

500today

 

Next Friday: A massive ridge off the coast of the Southeast, and a trough out west:

500nextfri

 

We have not seen that kind of a look on a weather map in a long time! This will open the floodgates to some very mild air. Here’s the GFS Ensemble model temperature forecast for next 16 days:

gefshighs

 

Notice we reach the mid 50s late next week, then cool off….BUT no harsh cold returns to the pattern.

The European model says 60! Sixty!!! is on the table late next week:

euronextfri

 

Finally today, I love statistics and charts and what not, so here are a few that show how this winter season is shaping up compared to others.

Total snowfall:

snow

 

Number of days with at least 1″ of snow on the ground:

depth

 

Number of mornings below zero (we added one to this this morning):

belowzero

 

Thanks for reading!

Eric

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