Mmmmmmm, Humble Pie! Sunday Snow Thoughts:

humble_pie

First of all, I want to apologize for the bad forecast. Saturday night/Sunday’s snow was a true forecast “bust”. I walked out of work at 12:05am Friday night confident that any snow over the weekend would be “no big deal”. I took Saturday off and nursed my bad cold.

So I was just as surprised as you when I woke up to a few inches of snow Sunday morning!

So, what happened? Essentially, many of the computer models we use as tools to help us forecast the weather did not pick up on how intense the system would be until the last minute. The models were fooled….and as a result, human forecasters (myself included) were fooled.

That does not excuse the bad forecast, as our job is to add value to the models, to be able to sense when they have the wrong idea and to adjust forecasts accordingly.

I have been forecasting professionally for over 12 years and have had many forecast busts. I know this: each bust makes me a better forecaster. Lessons are learned. The busts motivate me to work even HARDER.

So again, if your plans were inconvenienced on Sunday as a result of more snow than was expected….I am sorry and we will get ’em next time!

Now, some good news! Milder weather looks to be on the way for the last 10 days of February:

cfs_anom_t2m_conus_2014021000_x81

3 thoughts on “Mmmmmmm, Humble Pie! Sunday Snow Thoughts:

  1. Hey, nobody’s perfect! It’s all part of the job. I, for one, am just really thankful to have all of your video updates and explanations. I love getting to see some of the details and understanding *why* the forecast is the way it is. Keep up the good work and feel better!

Leave a Reply