And Now…..The REAL Cold Comes.

Captain Obvious: It’s very cold and windy this morning across the region. Wind chills were well below zero at the start of the day. And of course, we have our fresh snow on the ground. The forecast worked out well Thursday with most places picking up between 3-6 inches of snow.

Here is a map showing how much snow fell over the last 24 hours or so:

snow

 

Now we really can start focusing on the next round of precipitation and the INCREDIBLE cold to follow. The leading edge of the intense cold will be accompanied by some snow as the air mass moves south and east. Here’s the Sunday evening weather map:

sundayevening

 

The air will probably warm up just enough ahead of the system that many places will see a mix or even changeover to rain for a time Sunday evening. This will cut down on overall snow totals. This looks like a 1-3″ or at most 2-4″ type of event for most of the Mahoning Valley, and that idea is supported by the latest computer models.

The European model has a bit less than 2″ here. Notice the much higher amounts to the west where there will be no mixing and colder air:

eurosnow

 

The Canadian Model has a similar idea:

canadiansnow

 

After the snow comes the cold. Temperatures will FALL all day Monday and we should be below zero by sunset. Overnight lows Monday night will be outrageous. Our forecast is for -16, but -20 is not out of the question. The European model has been singing that song consistently.  Here’s it’s forecasted overnight lows:

ecmwf_t2min_cleveland_18

 

Other models are not quite as extreme and we lean toward those models somewhat. Here’s the list of all time record lows in Youngstown:

lowesttemps

 

The REALLY bad news? The wind is looking to be fierce for a while after the arctic air arrives. The Wind Chills shown on the GFS computer model are unbelievable:

gfs_windchill_ohio_33

YES, THAT’S -45 DEGREES. I suspect that is TOO LOW, but still, -25 to -35 is a real possibility for the Wind Chill Tuesday morning.

This is the kind of cold and wind that can lead to frostbite in less than 10-15 minutes. There will be scores of dead car batteries. If your home is prone to pipes freezing, take the time to insulate them. And of course, common sense applies when it comes to pets. Keep them in and if they HAVE to go out, make sure it is only for a couple of minutes.

The HIGH is likely to be below zero Tuesday and that is quite rare. The coldest HIGH temperatures on record in Youngstown:

lowesthighs

 

Jess Briganti will be in Saturday morning and I will be on duty Sunday morning getting you prepared for this amazing, but dangerous weather situation.

Thanks for reading!

Eric

 

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