2014 Starting With a Bang!

After picking up an inch or so worth of snow Monday night and this morning, a period of quieter weather will be with us this afternoon and evening. It will just be windy and cold!

If you will be out celebrating the arrival of the new year tonight, be aware that there may be a touch of snow or flurries around…perhaps just enough to cause a slippery spot or two, especially on sidewalks, parking lots, etc.

This band of light snow will encompass much of northern Ohio and the southern Great Lakes:

midnightsnow

 

As for the daylight hours of New Years’ Day, I think there will be some light snow around at times, especially north of I-80. Parts of Trumbull and Mercer counties might get an inch or two, with less than an inch more likely farther south. Here’s what the radar may look like at 4pm:

4pmrad

 

Notice the “steadier” snow in northwest Ohio? That will pivot across the state and through the Youngstown area Wednesday night and Thursday morning/midday. That time frame is when accumulations are most likely across the entire viewing area.

HOW MUCH??

When we total up snow accumulations from Wednesday through Thursday (again, MOST of it occurs Wednesday night/Thursday morning and midday)….the computer models have come into pretty good agreement. My “first stab” of 3-6″ made Monday morning looks pretty good. Best chance for the high end of the that range will be north of I-80.

Here’s the European model accumulation forecast:

eurosnow

The American GFS model:

gfssnow

The latest Short Range Ensemble Model (blue line) has an average of near 7″ at the YNG airport. This is probably a bit high, but not totally out of the question:

Capture

Ok, let’s talk about the cold for a minute. It’s going to come in 2 waves. The first one arrives in the wake of the snow Thursday night through Saturday morning.

Lows Friday morning (on European model):

eurofriam

Many places will flirt with 0 Friday morning and again Saturday morning. Here’s Saturday’s lows, again according to the European:

eurosatam

Next week’s cold is likely to be more intense, and some of the coldest weather we have had in at least a few years. How cold it gets is a tough forecast this far out. I think low temperatures of -5 to -10 are POSSIBLE for 1-2 mornings next week. Stay tuned!

Eric

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