The Big Pre-Christmas Washout of 2013

Another weekend….another storm! This time it is RAIN and not snow that is our big concern. Scattered showers will occur today, with steadier rain expected for Saturday. The heaviest rain is likely to fall late Saturday and Saturday night.

This map shows the slug of heavy rain pushing through before daybreak on Sunday:

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How much rain? The highest totals are likely to be from western Ohio down through the lower Ohio River Valley. Here’s how much rain the European model predicts:

eurorainA good 2 inches in the Mahoning Valley, with 3-5 inches from Toledo to Cinci and points southwest.

The National Weather Service has an even beefier prediction, with over 3″ for most of the WFMJ viewing area. I think this is probably somewhat overdone and that we are likely to be closer to 2″ total (between now and Sunday morning).

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A broader view of the NWS forecast shows how water-logged the Ohio/Mississippi Valleys will be:

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There is also a SEVERE weather risk….thankfully not here though. While a rumble of thunder is possible in the Youngstown area Saturday night, we are not expecting damaging winds or hail. Map shows enhanced risk in yellow for Cinci, Louisville, etc:

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Those who  live near rivers, streams and creeks need to be aware of the elevated flood risk, especially Saturday night and Sunday. Here is the forecast for the Mahoning River at Leavittsburg, Warren and Youngstown. Minor flooding possible, and moderate flooding cannot be ruled out:

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warren

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After the rainy weekend, it looks quieter but colder for the few days around Christmas. As we have been saying for a few days now, a White Christmas is not likely at across the area. There will not be an inch on the ground Christmas morning and Christmas Day is likely to be snow-free. That said, there may be some “mood” flurries on Christmas Eve:

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Christmas Eve will be windy and COLD with wind chills in the teens.

Who will get a White Christmas? Lots of places in the Midwest, northern New England:

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Thanks for reading! Have a good, safe weekend!

Eric

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