An Update on Saturday’s Snow

First, a quick recap of the COLD. At 7:45 this morning, the average temperature across Ohio was a bone-chilling 9.9 degrees:

rtma_tmp2m_midatlus

A few of the coldest nooks in north-central Ohio dropped a bit below zero, while most backyards in the Mahoning and Shenango valleys were between 6-10 at the start of the day. There is a TON of cold air over the continent right now:

namtemps

 

This type of cold this early in the season does not happen often….in fact, just a handful of times in the last 30 years in Youngstown:

colddays

 

Ok, on to the weekend snow. Not much has changed in the thinking since yesterday. Snow will break out a few hours before daybreak on Saturday and it will basically snow all day. Here is an animation showing the snow piling up from 1am Saturday to 1pm Sunday (click to animate):

output_jdmoy7That’s the European model, and it has similar ideas to other models. Look closely and you can see it gives most of the area 4-5 inches of snow.

The SREF model, which is an “ensemble” model, has a range of solutions from about 2 inches to a little over 7 inches. The mean or average (black line) is a bit over 4 inches. (An ensemble model is a model that is run several times, each time with slightly different initial conditions. Each run is represented by a line on the graph.)

sref

 

So, we have out a forecast of 3-5 inches for late Friday night and Saturday. Small additional accumulations are possible Sunday, mainly in the most lake-effect prone areas north of I-80. Malls will be packed Saturday; if you plan on being out, take it slow and plan on longer-than-average travel times!

Thanks for reading…Eric

 

 

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