Youngstown Weather Year in Review 2013

Like all years, there were many weather “highs” and “lows” in 2013. Hot weather, cold weather, wet weather, dry weather, snowy weather. But when we look at the year as a whole, what do we find? It was VERY typical! In fact, the average temperature of 49.1 degrees is exactly normal for Youngstown!

91 was reached on two consecutive days in July (the 18th and 19th). A cold snap in January sent the mercury down to 3 above on both the 23rd and 24th.

dayfile

 

Notice the precipitation total: almost exactly average!

Here’s a chart showing the temperature spread every day this year, with record highs and lows shown as well:

2013temps

 

 

How did this year compare to past years, temperature wise? Here is a look at the average temperature each year going back to 1930:

19302013temps

 

 

As you can see, this year was cooler than the last few.

This chart shows how precipitation trends evolved over the year. After a dry Spring/early Summer, the second half of Summer was wet and included some flooding problems in July:

2013precip

 

2013 was quite a bit drier than 2012:

20122013precip

 

Overall precipitation was near normal for the year, but snowfall was above normal. Here’s how this year’s snow compares to years past:

snow19302013

 

2014 is going to start very cold and snowy. What will the rest of the year bring? How will it compare to 2013? Check back in 365 days 🙂

Eric

 

 

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2014 Starting With a Bang!

After picking up an inch or so worth of snow Monday night and this morning, a period of quieter weather will be with us this afternoon and evening. It will just be windy and cold!

If you will be out celebrating the arrival of the new year tonight, be aware that there may be a touch of snow or flurries around…perhaps just enough to cause a slippery spot or two, especially on sidewalks, parking lots, etc.

This band of light snow will encompass much of northern Ohio and the southern Great Lakes:

midnightsnow

 

As for the daylight hours of New Years’ Day, I think there will be some light snow around at times, especially north of I-80. Parts of Trumbull and Mercer counties might get an inch or two, with less than an inch more likely farther south. Here’s what the radar may look like at 4pm:

4pmrad

 

Notice the “steadier” snow in northwest Ohio? That will pivot across the state and through the Youngstown area Wednesday night and Thursday morning/midday. That time frame is when accumulations are most likely across the entire viewing area.

HOW MUCH??

When we total up snow accumulations from Wednesday through Thursday (again, MOST of it occurs Wednesday night/Thursday morning and midday)….the computer models have come into pretty good agreement. My “first stab” of 3-6″ made Monday morning looks pretty good. Best chance for the high end of the that range will be north of I-80.

Here’s the European model accumulation forecast:

eurosnow

The American GFS model:

gfssnow

The latest Short Range Ensemble Model (blue line) has an average of near 7″ at the YNG airport. This is probably a bit high, but not totally out of the question:

Capture

Ok, let’s talk about the cold for a minute. It’s going to come in 2 waves. The first one arrives in the wake of the snow Thursday night through Saturday morning.

Lows Friday morning (on European model):

eurofriam

Many places will flirt with 0 Friday morning and again Saturday morning. Here’s Saturday’s lows, again according to the European:

eurosatam

Next week’s cold is likely to be more intense, and some of the coldest weather we have had in at least a few years. How cold it gets is a tough forecast this far out. I think low temperatures of -5 to -10 are POSSIBLE for 1-2 mornings next week. Stay tuned!

Eric

A Wild First Day of “Winter”!

Winter began at 12:11pm Saturday and of course it was unusually warm and wet. Take a look at rainfall totals since mid-morning yesterday:

rainohio

Radar-estimated rainfall totals over the last 36 hours have been impressive as well:

cle

 

Totals were even higher in SW Ohio with up to 5″ just northwest of Dayton:iln

 

While not much thunder and lightning occurred last night, a very impressive shot of wind and rain rolled through between 1:45-2:30. Here’s the 2:00 am radar:

2AM

 

There were several reports of wind damage across the region…most heavily concentrated from the Ohio River south:

reports

 

Since rainfall totals were not quite as high as feared, the flooding threat along the Mahoning River does not look as high as yesterday. Crests will still be above flood stage later today:

Leavittsburg:

leav

 

Warren:

warren

 

Youngstown:

yo

 

I (and this blog) will be on vacation starting Monday! I wish you and yours a Merry Christmas!

-Eric

 

 

The Big Pre-Christmas Washout of 2013

Another weekend….another storm! This time it is RAIN and not snow that is our big concern. Scattered showers will occur today, with steadier rain expected for Saturday. The heaviest rain is likely to fall late Saturday and Saturday night.

This map shows the slug of heavy rain pushing through before daybreak on Sunday:

ecmwfued---conus-60-C-mslpthkpcp_white6

How much rain? The highest totals are likely to be from western Ohio down through the lower Ohio River Valley. Here’s how much rain the European model predicts:

eurorainA good 2 inches in the Mahoning Valley, with 3-5 inches from Toledo to Cinci and points southwest.

The National Weather Service has an even beefier prediction, with over 3″ for most of the WFMJ viewing area. I think this is probably somewhat overdone and that we are likely to be closer to 2″ total (between now and Sunday morning).

qpfclose

A broader view of the NWS forecast shows how water-logged the Ohio/Mississippi Valleys will be:

qpfbig

There is also a SEVERE weather risk….thankfully not here though. While a rumble of thunder is possible in the Youngstown area Saturday night, we are not expecting damaging winds or hail. Map shows enhanced risk in yellow for Cinci, Louisville, etc:

day2

Those who  live near rivers, streams and creeks need to be aware of the elevated flood risk, especially Saturday night and Sunday. Here is the forecast for the Mahoning River at Leavittsburg, Warren and Youngstown. Minor flooding possible, and moderate flooding cannot be ruled out:

leav

warren

yo

After the rainy weekend, it looks quieter but colder for the few days around Christmas. As we have been saying for a few days now, a White Christmas is not likely at across the area. There will not be an inch on the ground Christmas morning and Christmas Day is likely to be snow-free. That said, there may be some “mood” flurries on Christmas Eve:

xmaseve

Christmas Eve will be windy and COLD with wind chills in the teens.

Who will get a White Christmas? Lots of places in the Midwest, northern New England:

eurodepth

Thanks for reading! Have a good, safe weekend!

Eric