Update on the Weekend and Thanksgiving Week

Before we get to the weekend, take a look at this evening’s temperatures. This arctic front means business!

current

Our forecast for the weekend looks to be on track. Saturday will bring highs in the 30s and afternoon/evening flurries.  The wind will make it feel like it is no higher than the 20s. Snow showers will be most common Saturday night as the true arctic air surges in. As far as accumulations, I think most of the WFMJ viewing area will get a coating to an inch. There can be up to a few inches in northern Trumbull and northern Mercer counties.

I like to use something called the “Short Range Ensemble Forecast” model. Like all “ensemble” models, it is a model that is run several times, each time with it’s initial conditions slightly tweaked. The tweaking of the initial conditions (temperature, humidity, etc) results in a different outcome each time. If the outcomes are not TOO different, it gives us more confidence in the forecast. If they are VERY different, it means that this will be a tough forecast and I should consider putting my head down for some quiet time.

Here’s the most recent SREF snow forecast for the Youngstown-Warren airport in southeast Trumbull County:

NCEP SREF Plume ViewerThere are a few stragglers above 2″, but most of the “members” are below 2″ and the mean, or average, is 1″. So, that jives pretty well with our forecast. Again, there could be more closer to the traditional NE Ohio/NW PA snowbelt.

Wind chills Sunday will be in the teens in the afternoon and single digits in the morning and evening. Yuck.

aint-nobody-got-time-for-that

What about that busy travel day right before Thanksgiving? There are some disagreements among the computer models when it comes to the East Coast. Traveling west? No weather worries. Heading east? Here’s the deal. The European model (top left) has a pretty healthy snowstorm for the Northeast US, away from the coast. The Canadian model (upper right)  has a more “out to sea” idea. The American GFS model (bottom) keeps precipitation in the Southeast, then goes out to sea. What do II think?? I suspect the European idea will be closest to the truth.

3models

Bottom Line: Whichever ends up being right, odds favor a quiet Wednesday and a quiet and cold Thanksgiving in the Youngstown area. Not traveling? Looks good.

IF there is an East Coast storm, that may cause a chain reaction of travel delays at airports across the country, so keep that in mind if you are flying.

The European, the snowiest model, has this kind of accumulation Tuesday night into Wednesday:

snowtuenightwed

Over a foot in parts of New England.

As far as I am concerned, they can keep it!

-Eric

 

Leave a Reply