Does a Cold, Snowy November Mean a Cold, Snowy Winter?

After this week’s snowstorm and the unrelenting cold at the end of the month, November 2013 will go down as one of the coldest, snowiest Novembers on record in Youngstown. But, does this tell us anything about the upcoming Winter?

Not much!

I looked at the 4 snowiest Novembers in Youngstown since 1930 and then looked at how much snow fell in the December-March period following those Novembers.

Following a very snowy November in 1950, the Winter of 1950-1951 was close to average:


November of 1967 was a snowy one. But the Winter of 1967-68 was not:


After a white November of 1971, the Winter was not bad:


Only the Winter of 2008-09 had ABOVE average snowfall after a snowy November:


What about temperatures? This November will probably crack the Top 10 Novembers on record in Youngstown. Looking at the rest of the Top 10, less than HALF (4 out of 10) Winters were colder than average following a frigid November.

Bottom line: don’t read too much into this unusually wintry November. It does not necessarily mean we are in for a long, snowy Winter.



Biggest November Snow Event in 42 Years in Youngstown

I was crunching some numbers this evening and this will probably be the biggest snow event in Youngstown since 1971. Here is that month’s weather statistics:

1971snow About 14.5 inches of snow fell in the 21st and 22nd.

This comes on the heels of the coldest November day since 1976 on Sunday! What a week. This morning’s lows were the coldest since February:

NWS Mesonet Observations


Based on the latest data, our forecast of 5-10″ for the majority of the WFMJ viewing area looks good this evening.

Here’s the latest NAM Model snow totals through daybreak Wednesday:

namsnowThe purple color indicates more than 6 inches. During the day Wednesday, LAKE-EFFECT may add another few inches to this, especially north of I-80.

Have a great evening!