BLOG: May Warmth, Weekend Outlook, Summer Preview

Happy Friday! Been a while since I have done a blog post but the weather hasn’t been all that “interesting” lately. The warmth remains the big story. The first week of May has featured above average temperatures every single day. calander

How does this stack up against other warm starts to May? Somewhat surprisingly, we have had much warmer starts to the month. Even some recent years on this list:

may1to7

I’ll talk about the longer-range outlook later in the post, but if you’ve watched my videos and TV forecasts you know I am expecting the warmer-than-average weather to continue for much of the month.

In the near term, it’s Mother’s Day weekend and lots of people will be outdoors. Today’s threat of rain is very low, in the 10-20% chance range this afternoon. It will be so warm (and somewhat humid) that the atmosphere might try to pop a couple of showers.

hrrr

Instability will be pretty modest today so thunder isn’t very likely in any of these stray showers. CAPE, or Convective Available Potential Energy is one of the ways we measure instability in the lower atmosphere. CAPE values today are pretty low:

CAPETODAY

On Saturday, the atmosphere will be somewhat more unstable. This might lead to more numerous showers/storms in the afternoon but the coverage will still not be very high. Very very “hit or miss”. Most will miss.

sat5p

Sunday’s weather map will be a wild one with strong low pressure across the Plains, severe weather possible again in the Midwest and Mississippi Valley, SNOW in the northern Plains and Subtropical Storm Ana still annoying the Carolinas.

sunsfc

Here at home, expect another very steamy day. Chance for a pop-up shower or storm is there once again in the afternoon but the coverage will still be pretty low. Keep those outdoor plans.

A cold front will arrive Monday night. Behind that front, it WILL cool down and turn less humid.But for how long? Not long! Check out how quickly the warmth is likely to return:

gefs

Climate models have been leaning toward a June that will likely be closer to average than this very warm May. Notice the lack of any strong warm or cool signals for us:

cfstemps

What about the Summer as a whole? If the current modeling is on the right track….”ho hum”. No strong signals for temperatures and precipitation at this point. Might end up being very “typical” in both departments.

SUMMERcfsprecip

Thanks for reading and have a good weekend!

Eric

Weather Forecasts, Analysis, Opinion For Northeast Ohio, Western Pennsylvania From 21 News Chief Meteorologist Eric Wilhelm

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