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Chief Meteorologist Eric Wilhelm's Blog

Weather Forecasts, Analysis, Opinion For Northeast Ohio, Western Pennsylvania From 21 News Chief Meteorologist Eric Wilhelm

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS FEBRUARY 8

MONDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

GOOD MORNING!

Hope you enjoyed the weekend. This week and the upcoming weekend will be quite a bit different!

One more mild February day today before the cold settles in. Temperatures can spike into the middle and perhaps even upper 40s by midday today but rain will arrive around lunch time as well…..especially in our Ohio counties. The precipitation will not spread east all that quickly.

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While we can’t rule out some wet snowflakes trying to mix in this afternoon,  this will mainly be rain. The chance for some wet snow will increase after sunset as temperatures cool.

TONIGHT/TUESDAY SNOW SHOWERS

The air mass will cool enough that any precipitation that falls will be frozen tonight and Tuesday. Snow showers will visit on a few occasions. There is a chance for a somewhat steadier period of snow south of Rt 30 late tonight….close call there.

Snow accumulations tonight and Tuesday can average a coating to an inch or two. Might be a little more than 2″ in southern Columbiana County if that steadier snow gets going.

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WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: COLDER, MORE SNOW SHOWERS

The air will continue to get colder as we go through midweek. Snow showers will continue, with the most frequent snow in the snow belt. Snow accumulations will remain possible but will generally be on the modest side.

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NWS snow forecast through Wednesday evening shows the possibility of a handful of inches in total, especially in the northern viewing area.

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HARSH COLD FOR THE WEEKEND

The coldest air of winter will arrive for Valentine’s Day weekend. Expecting temperatures to stay in the single digits or lower teens Saturday with wind chills below zero. Air temperatures could drop as low as 0 to -10 Saturday night.

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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! MUCH more on the midweek snow, the weekend arctic attack and the long range in tonight’s video. Weather For Weather Geeks will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the WFMJ app by 8:00pm.

21 STORMTRACKER WEATHER APP

Head to your favorite app store and get the Valley’s most accurate forecast in your pocket!

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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS FEBRUARY 4

THURSDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

HAPPY FRIDAY EVE

BIG NEWS: STORMTRACKER 21 APP NOW AVAILABLE FOR ANDROID USERS!

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iOS users: It should be in the App Store in 4-9 days.

Well yesterday’s 62 was a record for that date, smashing the old record of 55. How does it compare to all-time February warmth? 62 is not that high on the list, actually. The warmest February day on record in Youngstown occurred in 2000.

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This morning we have a sea of clouds and that will keep temperatures from moving much all day.

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Some passing flurries will be a possibility. 15 hour futurecast:

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FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND

Quiet! Some sunshine all three days with above-average temperatures….especially over the weekend. Enjoy!

NEXT WEEK

The much-advertised (been talking about this for at least 10 days now) pattern change will get underway early next week. Arctic air will infiltrate the eastern US. As I have mentioned, this air would have more “bite” to it if the Great Lakes had more ice cover but since ice is almost non-existent this year the air can modify quite a bit as it flows over the waters.

Only 5.7% ice cover(!)

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Rain and snow showers on Monday as we cool off.

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The rest of the week will feature NO big storms but plenty of cold, gusty northwest winds….snow showers and flurries….and mostly minor accumulations. It is possible that some places will end up with a few inches on the ground by the end of the week.

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2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

We were all over yesterday’s record warmth starting Monday….way ahead of other sources.

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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will have a discussion about next week’s cold snap and what lies beyond that. Will winter ever “lock in”?? We are running out of time. Weather For Weather Geeks will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the WFMJ app by 8:00pm.

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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS FEBRUARY 3

WEDNESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

GOOD MORNING….

As expected, a good soaker last night. Good thing it wasn’t snow!

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The rain has pushed east this morning and we await the dry slot of this system. When that works in this afternoon, temperatures will blast off into record territory. Today’s record of 55 is packing it’s bags.

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The wind will become more of a factor as well, especially when we get some sunshine. There could be some gusts to 40 mph or so.

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BACK TO REALITY

In the wake of this system, back to “typical” February weather on Thursday with clouds, colder temperatures and a few flurries.

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TRANQUIL FRIDAY AND WEEKEND

Some sunshine and pretty decent February weather with above-average temperatures. Enjoy!

COLDER NEXT WEEK

Next week will certainly be colder as the jet stream buckles across North America. The leading edge of te cold will be accompanied by flurries and snow showers Monday.

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While no big storms are likely, we can get “nickled and dimed” by flurries and snow showers at times next week.

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As you can see, the cold is not likely to last long. The pattern during the final 10-12 days of February does NOT look like one that will support much cold.

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2 DEGREE GUARANTEE

2 for 2 to start February.

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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! This evening’s video will examine the cold weather that is on the way next week and detail the long-range trends including the month of March. Will it be an early Spring? Weather For Weather Geeks will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the WFMJ app by 8:00pm.

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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS FEBRUARY 2

TUESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

GOOD MORNING!

A thick frost this morning but it is going to be a very nice day across the Valley. We expect a mix of sun and clouds with afternoon temperatures in the lower 50s…..some 17-18 degrees above average.

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Meanwhile, a major storm system is producing heavy snow and lots of wind in the middle of the country:

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As this comes east, it will draw Gulf moisture northward and a Spring-like outbreak of severe weather is likely by this evening across the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys.

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RAIN AND WIND TONIGHT

No severe weather here but there will be a good slug of rain overnight and winds can gust to 35-40 mph.

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Rain totals will average 0.50″-0.75″ with some places perhaps getting an inch.

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Temperatures will spike into record territory after the rain tomorrow. The record is 55 but we think readings will make it into the lower 60s!

REST OF THE WEEK

Back to reality Thursday behind the cold front. Clouds, seasonable temperatures and maybe a flurry or two.

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Friday will be sunnier and a bit warmer.

THE WEEKEND

It’ll be a nice one! Some sunshine both days with above-average temperatures.

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LONG RANGE

Winter is not over. Still looks like there will be a significant (although fairly brief) outbreak of cold air toward the end of next week.

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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”! If you like this blog you’ll like the video. This evening’s version will have a fresh take on the big storm crossing the country and an update on the arctic attack that is on the way next week. Weather For Weather Geeks will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the WFMJ app by 8:00pm.

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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS FEBRUARY 1

MONDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

GOOD MONDAY MORNING!

What a weekend! Sunday’s high of 59 was just 2 shy of the record of 61, set in 2002. January 2016 will go into the record books as a pretty typical one temperature-wise. The month finished about a third of a degree above average. All the numbers:

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Notice, the biggest one-day snow was a paltry 2.6″ on the 12th. The coldest temperature was 5 degrees, reached 3 times. Overall a pretty tame month….as expected. Our winter forecast called for a warm December, an average January and a somewhat colder than average February. Let’s see if we will make it 3 for 3 this month.

TODAY

A cold front crossed the Valley last night and brought some light rain.

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In the wake of that front, we expect temperatures to barely move today with variable clouds. It should be brighter later in the day as compared to now.

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MIDWEEK STORM

A strong, springlike storm will cross the middle of the country over the next couple of days. It will drop a lot of snow on the Heartland:

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But we will be on the warm side. So temperatures will rebound nicely Tuesday with a mix of sun and clouds. Highs can be near 50 or so south of the warm front.

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A severe weather outbreak is likely across the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.

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It’s possible that we hear thunder in eastern OH and western PA early Wednesday morning but we are not expecting severe weather.

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Temperatures will fall during the daylight hours Wednesday and this mild pattern will come to an end.

BACK TO NORMAL 

The pattern at the end of the week and the weekend will feature more “typical” early February weather. There might be flurries Thursday.

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No significant weather is expected through Super Bowl Sunday.

LONG RANGE

After a stretch of “average” days, we expect some of the coldest weather of the season so far during the latter half of NEXT week. The “heart” of the cold may be centered to our west but I still would anticipate a few days with highs in the double digits below average.

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Will it last?? I does not look likely right now. That cold shot should push out after a few days. Winter has a hard time “locking in” in strong El Ninos and this year is no exception.

Remember last February?

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This February will be NOTHING like that.

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS: 

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast will go into more detail on the midweek storm, including the active weather on the cold and warm sides. Plus: I’ll talk more about that mid-month cold snap.  Weather For Weather Geeks will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the WFMJ app by 8:00pm.

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