BLOG: Despite Teases, True Spring in Hiding

We have certainly had some nice Spring days so far this April, including the few days that preceded today.  After a long Winter, we have deserved each and every one of them! Check out the temperature anomalies for April so far…colors we have not seen here in a long time! aprilBUT….there are ominous signs that consistent Spring warmth is still a ways off for us.

First of all, in the very near term, YES you might see a flurry/snow shower very late tonight and early Wednesday. Best chance in the WFMJ viewing area is probably in Mercer and Trumbull counties. Check out the latest simulated radar on the HRRR model for daybreak Wednesday: hrrr_ref_cleveland_14

One of the big reasons we have to be on guard for cooler-than-average weather this Spring is the VERY cold, and still somewhat icy Great Lakes. The ice cover this late in the season is pretty remarkable. Here’s how it stands: glsea_curNotice Lake Superior is still almost completely covered in a (thin) layer of ice! MODIS imagery shows this nicely as well: t1.14110.1713.CIS_Great_Lakes.143.250m

Check out how the current ice coverage on the lakes compares to years past at this point in the season: 20140421180000_CVCHDCTGL_0007628828Wow.

So there will continue to be a constant risk of air masses getting “refrigerated” by these large bodies of water over the coming weeks…..making them colder than they would be normally.

As if this were not enough to be concerned about, next week’s weather pattern could be UG-LY across the region…not because of the Great Lakes, but because an upper-level low pressure system seems destined to get “stuck” across the eastern US. This will probably lead to a pattern of cool and wet weather for us. Watch how little this thing is likely to move in a 5 day period:

Next Wednesday: wedThursday: thursFriday: friSaturday: satSunday: sun

Yuck. How cool? How much rain? It’s too early to know those answers. But sunny, 70-80 degree days at the end of April and start of May? Forget it.

Would be nice to donate some of next week’s rain to the West. We are in no danger of a drought here, as shown on the latest Palmer Drought Severity Index: palmer

Thanks for reading!

Eric