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Chief Meteorologist Eric Wilhelm's Blog

Weather Forecasts, Analysis, Opinion For Northeast Ohio, Western Pennsylvania From 21 News Chief Meteorologist Eric Wilhelm

VIDEO: THURSDAY’S WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS

THURSDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

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Morning! Today is the grand Finale of Fall Preview 2015. Clouds will win the battle again today although there may be a few more peeks of sun than yesterday. 9:15am satellite:

GOES13002015239SDxdj0

Highs will be no better than 69-70 today, still way below average.

highstoday

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: 

Finally, Summer is back! We will have some sunshine and highs back to where they should be in late August.

hightomorrow

SUNDAY: 

A weak disturbance will track into the region so we have the chance of seeing spotty showers and thunderstorms. Most will stay dry.

SUNDAY

NEXT WEEK:

The big stories will be the continuation of the dry weather and the increase in heat and humidity. Highs will be in the 80s nearly every day and as we head toward the holiday weekend a 90+ day or 2 may be possible.

714

Upper pattern by next weekend looks like it will support some big heat.

500friday

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA:

Will continue giving forecasters headaches, perhaps for a long time. Last night’s models were a bit “all over the place” with the general idea being that Erika will strengthen over or near the Bahamas and then head north. Stay tuned on this one, Erika’s end game is very uncertain.

ERIKA

VIDEO: WEDNESDAY’S WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS

WEDNESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

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Good morning!

Tuesday’s high of 67 was a tie for the coolest high temperature on record for August 25 in Youngstown. Today? Not much different!

Although showers are confined to the snow belt this morning, a sprinkle or shower may sneak into the viewing area on occasion today.

now

15 hour futurecast:

hrrr_2015082611_ref_cleveland

Highs will be quite similar to yesterday; a good dozen degrees below average.

highstoday

THURSDAY:

The atmosphere will try to brighten Thursday afternoon but it may be a struggle. Temperatures no higher than the lower 70s.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND:

This is when things turn around. The upper low will fill in and move away from southern Ontario and that will allow summer to return. Highs 80-84 with the only chance for rain coming Sunday and that will just be a spotty shower or storm.

LONG RANGE: 

The heat is on next week! Look at how the pattern changes between now and late next week. Basically a reversal of the pattern across the low 48. The west will turn cool under a trough and a ridge will bring the warmth to the east.

500now

500nextfri

By Tuesday highs will be in the mid 80s:

highstue

And the pattern will likely hold through the Labor Day holiday weekend/Canfield Fair:

16day

TROPICS:

Erika will intensify as we head into the weekend and could be a significant problem for parts of the Bahamas. Concern is starting to grow that SE Florida could be impacted but confidence in the track decreases quickly as we get into Sunday/Monday. Stay tuned!

115459W5_NL_sm

VIDEO: TUESDAY’S WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS

TUESDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

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Good morning all,

After a comfortable night it is a fine August morning across the Valley with a mix of sunshine and clouds. From a distance, the weather map looks benign this morning:

now

But upon closer inspection, we have lake effect RAIN ongoing east of Cleveland:

RADAR

This is the same process that creates lake effect snow in the winter. Cool air is blowing over warm water, leading to uplift, which leads to clouds and precipitation. The air “upstairs” is VERY cool for August, all thanks to the big upper low sitting over the northern Great Lakes:

500

That low will continue to drive chilly Canadian air southward over the next couple of days. Highs today will not be much better than 71 or so:

day1

Those lake effect showers might try to clip far northern Trumbull County but the rest of the region will stay dry today. The sky will look like October this afternoon as it will be cloudier than this morning.

WEDNESDAY: 

Even cooler than today as it will be cloudier. Any sunshine early will be “self destruct sunshine”….what’s that? That’s what I like to call these situations where the air aloft is so cold that clouds form very easily. The sun heats the ground which causes the air above the ground to become buoyant. As that air rises it cools to it’s dewpoint (reaches saturation) and clouds form. These clouds form much more quickly when the air aloft is super cool.

A shower or two can fall out of these clouds Wednesday. Grabbing the umbrella is not a bad idea.

day2

THURSDAY: 

Similar to Wednesday with a smaller chance for a sprinkle/shower. More in the way of afternoon sunshine too.

day3

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: 

A warming trend. Friday looks beautiful with a chilly start and then highs in the upper 70s. The weekend will bring highs between 80-84. Small chance for a shower or thunderstorm on Sunday.

Very dry over the next 5 days; really tomorrow’s spotty showers should about do it for any rain.

QPF

LONG RANGE: 

Still on track for a warm period as we head toward Labor Day. 16 day numbers off the GFS ensemble model:

16day

TROPICS: 

Tropical Storm Erika could become a hurricane as it tracks west-northwest…possibly impacting the Bahamas over the weekend. Effects on the US are not clear yet but it’s possible that it scrapes the Southeast next week.

ERIKA

VIDEO: Monday’s Weather For Weather Geeks

MONDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

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TODAY: 

Cold front moved through with little fanfare last night; the airport picked up a trace of rain. The rest of today looks beautiful with some sunshine and comfortable air. After a warm night last night, tonight will be more like Friday and Saturday nights with lows in the lower 50s. Current surface map:

monam

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: 

The weather pattern will be unusual for late August…more like late-September! A large, powerful trough of low pressure will park over the northern Great Lakes. This will steer cool, Canadian air into the region.

500TUES

High temperatures will closer to the average for September 21. Highs today through Thursday:

highstoday   highstuehighswedshighsthurs

With all that cold air above our heads under the trough, a passing shower or sprinkle cannot be ruled out, especially on Wednesday. Otherwise, DRY is the name of the game. Rain totals through Friday night will be zero or at most a couple of hundredths of an inch.

rainthisweek

LONG RANGE: 

I have been preaching this for a while, but summer is NOT OVER. Pools and air conditioners will be used again before you know it. Warmer-than-average air is likely to return by late in the weekend and early next week. 16 day numbers off the GFS ensemble model:

16day

And September is likely to be warmer-than-average as a whole. The climate models have been advertising that for a while.

sept

More on all these topics this evening on “Weather For Weather Geeks”!

SUNDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

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Good morning! Another beautiful day today with warmer temperatures as well. We will get into the lower 80s this afternoon but with dewpoints in the 50s it will remain comfortable.

A cold front is tracking our way; it’s across the Midwest now.

now

The front can bring some showers tonight, mainly in the wee hours. Outside chance for a thunderstorm.

2am

Most, if not all of these will be gone by daybreak Monday.

WORK WEEK PREVIEW

Wow what a week this will be; absolute perfection if your child is starting school. Cool, dry mornings and very comfortable late-September-ish afternoons. High temperatures Tuesday:

highstue

Only around 70 or so. Wednesday and Thursday will be similar. Summer is NOT over though as warm air is set to make a comeback as we transition into September.

16day

It could be very warm to hot for Labor Day weekend/Canfield Fair.

Have a great Sunday!

FRIDAY WEATHER BRIEFING

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Good morning and TGIF…..

Sensational weather today through the weekend with a big dome of high pressure in control. This morning’s surface map:

NOW

Highs today in the mid 70s with very low dewpoints. Just about perfect in my book.

highstoday

The weekend will feature a warmup as we get near 80 Saturday and a few higher than that Sunday. The next chance for rain will be Sunday night and first thing Monday morning.

NEXT WEEK: 

A very dry and pleasant stretch of weather will unfold for the final week of August. For those starting school, this will be perfect. The middle of the week will be a real mid-September preview with highs only in the lower 70s. The upper pattern will look much like the winter did with a big trough over SE Canada and the Great Lakes and a big ridge out west.

500

Summer is not over though; warmer air will come back at the very end of the month and into early September. 16 day temperatures off the GFS ensemble model:

KYNG_2015082100_min_max_16

It will be a great pattern but we need more rain. Rain totals over the next 10 days are likely to be 0.10″ or less! And all that may come Sunday night. There probably will not be a drop after that through next weekend.

GFSRAIN

Not good since we are now in the “abnormally dry” category on the latest drought monitor.

drought

Have a great weekend!

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