BLOG: Windy Monday, White Thanksgiving??

Happy Monday!

Lots going on as we head toward Thanksgiving, so let’s get right to it. On the weather map this morning we have a strong cold front marching toward Ohio. Out ahead of it, it’s VERY mild! ustempsThat low pressure system over the northern Great Lakes is deepening rapidly, and the current pressure is as low as 980mb: pressure

This is making for a LOT of wind around the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Wind advisories are up, and for good reason. At 5,000 feet above our heads, the wind early this afternoon will be screaming at 60-85mph: 850wind

It will be windy down here at the surface because of the tight pressure gradient, but any downward transfer of energy , especially one caused by a shower, will result in a wind gust that could reach 50 mph or so. Here’s a look at the sustained winds early this afternoon: sfcwind

I mentioned a shower…..ahead of the front, a few showers will break out around midday. Here’s the noon simulated radar: noon

It’s even possible to have some thunder in those midday showers. The Storm Prediction Center has the region outlined for the chance for a thunderstorm today. There’s even a low-end “marginal” risk of severe weather (damaging winds) in western Ohio: day1otlk_1300

Cold air will return tonight through the end of the week, but it will not be nearly as harsh as the air we had a week ago. Thanksgiving, of course, is Thursday. LOTS of people will be traveling Wednesday and Thursday. We expect a tranquil day locally on Wednesday. BUT, there will be trouble west and especially….EAST. A significant snow storm will impact the East Coast, and while¬† the highest accumulations will likely be away from the immediate coast, BIG travel delays are a sure bet at many major hubs such as New York City, Boston, Philadelphia and DC. This could have a “ripple effect” on air travel nationwide. So if you or a loved one is flying out of or into Cleveland or Pittsburgh Wednesday into Wednesday night….there may be delays even though the local weather will be fine. gfs

To our west, there will be a minor “clipper” system that will leave smaller snow accumulations in places such as St. Louis and Chicago….but it can still be enough to cause problems on such a busy travel day.

What about Turkey Day itself?? That same clipper will make for a cold day around Youngstown and we are likely to see some flurries. At this point, accumulations are not looking LIKELY, but I also cannot rule out an inch or so. The latest SREF plumes show a spread of 0″-1.2″ Thursday: srefWe will of course be fine tuning that forecast in the next day or 2.

Getting up at some crazy hour to shop Friday morning? There could be some flurries. And it WILL be cold! Wind chills: gfs_windchill_ohio_35

What’s the longer range set to bring? On another busy travel day Sunday, we expect no problems around the region. Temperatures should rebound nicely early in December: gefsOVERALL, December may shape up to be the most “tolerable”, relative to average, of all the months from November-March. We do expect some of the harsh cold that November brought to return on several occasions during January and February. It will not happen as frequently in December.

Thanks for reading!